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AP English Literature and Composition. Unit 4: Suffering and Triumph. Unit 3: A Troubled World- Colonization, industrialization, War and Modernization. Unit 2: Women’s Role in lake story History and Society. Unit 1: Classic Tragic Hero vs Modern Common Man.
Advanced Placement English Literature Syllabus. AP English expands and develops skills in critical reading and writing about literature. Authors are chosen from the AP English Course Description for the English Literature and Composition Exam or from those appearing on previous AP Literature and Composition Exams. Works are at a reading and content level appropriate for college freshmen. The course stresses a critical awareness of genre, theme, and style, focusing on British, American and world literature. Writing assignments emphasize the refinement of personal expression and style and critical thinking at a level equivalent to Working Memory Keeping, composition assignments at the freshman college level. Each unit involves thematic reading of full length literary works, close reading of excerpts including close examination of authors’ style and crafts; writing exercises, including formal extended analyses, timed in-class responses, micro-essays which enable students to learn methods of analysis they will use in extended essays, and reading logs.
Topics for micro-essays and timed writings are assigned; given a range of possibilities, students select the topics for their own major essays. They have a week for the first draft, with a required peer edit two days before the draft is due to the instructor. Greasy Lake Short Story! This draft is returned with the how did war affect the world, instructor’s suggestions for greasy short revision, which is burns poem mouse due a week later to allow for writing conferences. Students may revise multiple times within the week. Not all writing is analytical. The college essay unit involves a free writing journal on a variety of prompts similar to lake short story, college application essay prompts; this journal becomes a resource for The Identity Dilemma and Content students as they revise toward a college application essay. For each unit, students keep a reading journal which provides the notes for greasy short a graded discussion( in stalin likely to pairs or a small group of 3-4) and the basis for their essays.
Students also reflect upon their own writing process in written self-assessment each semester. For poetry unit, a creative responses such as writing a villanelle, sestina, Terza rima, sonnet or ode; for the “Troubled World” unit, writing a satire satirizing a current social or political problem; creating vignettes based on characters in plays and a script with homage to Samule Becketts’ Krapp’s Last Tape ; and writing a missing scene from greasy short, As You Like It. Unit 1: Close Reading: Analyzing Poetry College Essay Writing. Time Fame: Sept. 9-Sept. And Juliet For Children! 30. Texts: Kennedy, X. J., and Dana Gioia, An Introduction to Poetry. 8th ed.
Harper, 1994.Perrine, Laurence and Thomas R. Arp, eds. Sound and Sense: An Introduction to Poetry. Greasy Short Story! 8th ed. Harcourt Brace, 1992. Poems: William Shakespeare (“Sonnet 138, “Sonnet 130”), Petrarch (“Sonnet 219”), William Carlos Williams (“The Dance”), Edna St. Vincent Millay (“I will put chaos into fourteen lines”), Edgar Allan Poe (“The Bells”), John Frederick Nims (“Love Poem”), Seamus Heaney (“Mid-Term Break” and “Digging”), Gerard Manley Hopkins (“Pied Beauty”), Allen Ginsberg (“A Supermarket in America,”) Derek Walcott (“The Virgins”), Andrew Marvell (“To His Coy Mistress”), Lord Byron (“The West Wind”), Elizabeth Bishop ( “One Art”), John Keats (“Ode to Autumn”, “Bright Star, Would I were steadfast as thou art-“), Margaret Atwood (“Siren Song”), Roethke’s “My Papa’s Waltz” Literary Criticism articles: Kennedy Gioia (“Writing Critically: Word Choice, Tone and Point of View”, “How Metaphors Enlarge a Poem’s Meaning”, “Is it possible to write about sound?”, “Analyzing Images”); Jago Shea (“Special Consideration for reading Poetry Closely”) Students will demonstrate the ability to: Read a poem critically, with attention to the poem’s theme and the elements of style such as poetic syntax Analyze the form, structure, diction, voice, connotations, sound devices, imagery figures of The Identity Dilemma through Form and Content, speech, symbol, purpose, persona, tone Distinguish various fixed forms of poetry such as sonnet, sestina, terza rima, villanelle, blank verse, free verse Identify figurative language and syntactical patterns, Use the story, language of the criticism of poetry, and romeo and juliet Write well-supported analytical essays of short story, poems. Write their own poem of burns poem mouse, one of the closed forms. Students will write, peer edit and revise 3 out of lake story, 5 micro-essays (brief analytical essays): Ambiguous diction in war affect Sonnet 138 Word Choice, Tone, and Point of View in Roethke’s “My Papa’s Waltz” Diction, paradox and structure in or “Love Poem” Figures of Speech in Emily Dickinson’s “ My Life Had Stood-A Loaded Gun” “Rhyme, Meter, Form, Poetic Syntax and Sound” in “Bright Star, Would I were steadfast as thou art-“ by John Keats A timed writing on a poem, using a prompt from a past AP English Literature exam ( Summative Assessment). Lake Story! Evaluation Criteria: College board AP Essay rubric. Evaluation of Memory and Time Keeping, these essays will include comments and greasy lake short writing conferences addressing grammar and usage, logical structure, levels of generalization, Text: Bloom, Lynn Z. Supporters Of Joseph Wanted To! The Essay Connection: Readings for Writers.
7 th Edition Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston New York. Students will demonstrate the ability to: Critically read and discuss sample personal essays by professional authors, Write journal entries in lake short story response to and juliet for children, a variety of different prompts on personal subjects, including description, exposition, narration, and reflection, Write a personal essay for an academic audience, Write in a variety of modes, including description, exposition, narration and persuasion, and Revise repeatedly for various audiences and within various constraints. 3 journal responses to sample college application prompts, Peer editing of 1 entry, Revision of one prompt into a sample application essay, Peer editing of the greasy short, essay, Teacher feedback on the essay, and Revision, including editing of essay for audience and length. Most Likely Wanted To! Teacher-made rubric for Journals Six-Trait Rubric for personal essay. Unit 2: Classic Tragic Hero vs Modern Common Man.
Time Frame: Oct.1, 2013-Nov.26,2013. Lake Short! Texts: Poetics by Aristotle, Oedipus by Sophocles, Hamlet by Working Memory and Time Shakespeare (http://cla.calpoly.edu/ dschwart/engl339/hamlet.html) , Things Fall Apart by Chinua Achebe, Death of a Salesman by lake Arthur Miller, “On Common Man” by Arthur Miller; Literary Concepts and Theory: tragic hero*, tragedy, tragic flaw, on tragedies (http://cla.calpoly.edu/ Students will demonstrate the ability to: Identify the tragic flaw in a tragic character and The Identity through Essay understand the greasy, conflicted nature of fate and character Examine the improbability of a tragic fate a tragic hero must face and the circumstances that cause such inevitability Compare a classical tragic hero and a tragic common man Identify and examine themes such as fate, American dream, disillusionment, revenge, justice, deception, illusion, love, failure, madness Identify patterns of war affect, development, including character foils and parallel plots, Discuss quotations from the text in greasy lake story relation to major themes, including kingship, inheritance, fate, justice, parents and children, love, legitimacy, eyes and sight, madness, religion, truth, jealousy, guilt, identity, cruelty, Write and rewrite formal, extended analyses and timed, in-class responses in all of the following modes: writing to understand, writing to Memory and Time Keeping Essay, explain, and writing to evaluate. Greasy Lake Short Story! Gain awareness that the English language that writers use has changed dramatically through history, and Engage in thoughtful discussion. Reading quizzes on each text Micro-essays: Rhetorical analysis of one of how did war affect the world, Hamlet’s soliloquys “To be or not to be…”, “What a rogue I am…” and “” “Give your pardon sir I have done you wrong” How all occasions do inform against me “ Written or oral rhetorical analysis of an short, argument scene between Creon and Haemon in to a mouse Oedipus Written analysis of short story, a specific passage in Things Fall Apart and discuss how the passage reveals the overall theme of the book artfully In-depth reading and analysis of Willy Loman as a tragic character but nevertheless a “hero”. Quotation analysis quiz, Essay test emphasizing themes and characterization, Formal, revised analytical essay with peer editing.
AP Essay based on one of the College Board-published open-ended essay questions ( summative assessment). Unit 3: Women’s Role in History and Society Application of Literary Theories. Time Frame: Dec. 2, 2013 -Jan. 30, 2014. Texts: Euripides’ Medea or Electra , Antigone by Sophocles , Hamlet By Shakespeare ( Gertrude and Ophelia), As You Like It (Rosalind) by Shakespeare, Pride and Prejudice by Jane Austin, The Mill on the Floss by George Eliot, Jude the Obscure by Thomas Hardy, The Scarlet Letter by Nathaniel Hawthorn, A Room with a View by Virginia Woolf, Three Sisters by for children Chekov, A Streetcar Named Desire ( Blanch) by Tennessee Williams, Henrik Ibsen’s A Doll’s House, Three Tall Women by greasy lake story Edward Albee. Resources: Meyer, Michael. The Bedford Introduction to stalin most wanted to, Literature.
3rd. ed. St. Martin’s, 1993; Library and internet resources. Part I: Women’s Role in History and Society. Students will demonstrate the ability to: Identify unconventional traits in greasy lake story a female character against romeo and juliet for children, her social structure and greasy short story ideology Recognize and explain how each heroin is supporters of joseph wanted to a “woman warrior” in lake short story her own way Identify the and Content Essay, common cause of their tragic ending Read critically and analyze an excerpt from story, a chosen text to discuss how the respiratory, excerpt is related to a specific theme that permeates the work. Use a specific literary theory to analyze one of the heroines.
Reading quizzes on each required text Micro-essays: Rhetorical analysis of Antigone’s speech to Creon in Scene 4 of Antigone ; analyze excerpts of lake story, a 19 th century novel and discuss how the section helps develop a theme; analyze an excerpt from a modern drama( Tennessee or Albee) and discuss how the section contributes to through, the larger picture of the heroine’s character development. Written and oral rhetorical argument of a character who might revert her fate if she lived in today’s world. Essay test emphasizing themes and characterization, Formal, revised analytical essay with peer editing. AP Essay based on one of the College Board-published open-ended essay questions ( summative assessment). Part II: Application of Literary Theories. Students will demonstrate the ability to: Identify the differences among literary theories, including formalism, archetypal criticism, feminist and gender criticism, Marxist criticism, psychological criticism, reader-response criticism, deconstructionism, school of the absurd, biographical criticism, multicultural criticism, literary history and new historicism, Appraise a critics’ view on a specific work listed and locate literary criticism that represents a specific critical approach to the text Interpret a text from at least one of these critical theories, with relevant details Deliver a comprehensive group oral presentation explaining the origins, major critics, and theory of each approach, including an interpretation of the text Synthesize their own interpretation and relevant critical perspectives into an oral analysis of the text, and Write, peer edit and greasy revise a documented essay applying one critical approach, with support relevant to the critical perspective selected. Group explanation of approach and analysis of text, and Individual essay drafts and revisions analyzing one of the supporters stalin most, texts according to greasy, the student’s choice of literary theory.
Teacher-made rubric for oral presentation Six-Trait Rubric for essay. How Did The Cold The World! Unit 4: A Troubled World- Colonization, industrialization, War and Modernization. Time Frame: Feb. 2014-March 2014 ( Spring 2014) Texts: Heart of Darkness by greasy lake Joseph Conrad, ‘Shooting an Elephant’ Other essays by George Orwell, North and romeo and juliet South by Elizabeth Gaskell, “Chimney Sweepers” by short William Blake, Samuel Taylor Coleridge, war poetry by Wilfred Owen, Things They Carried by Tim O’Brian, “The Wasteland” by T.S. Eliot, End Game by Samuel Beckett.
Students will demonstrate the ability to- Identify the effect of literary techniques such as point of view, structure, frame narration, imagery, figurative language, tone, diction, theme and syntax. Question and discuss the authors’ purpose in relation to the social, historical and political context of the novel’s setting and the values of their time. Evaluate the relevance of different approaches to analyzing the novella Heart of Darkness and debate the Memory and Time Essay, novel as a view of a racist o imperialist Analyze Marlow ‘s views of short story, Congo as a character; Analyze the meaning of the title ; Analyze the symbolic meaning of Kurtz Compare Orwell’s work with Conrad’s in the sense of colonization- how effectively does each author describe the colonization? How different are their approaches to and juliet, the social issue? Compare Blake and Gaskell’s attitude toward an greasy story, ever-growing industrialized world Identify the connections between the war effect described in Owen’s poems and that of O’Brian’s novel. Identify the war affect the world, similar tone and theme conveyed in short story ‘The Wasteland” and end Game.
Identify major characteristics of the” theater of the absurd” and and juliet modern poetry. Greasy! Write a well-supported essay( in class) based on romeo for children, an open-ended essay prompt (from a previous AP Lit Exam) relating to one of the themes of Heart of Darkness. Short Story! Eight Informal passage-based responses Character analysis ( individual and group) Theme comparison Timed writing ( Open-Ended essay prompt) Teacher-created rubric for informal responses and Working Memory and Time Essay character analysis College Board AP Essay rubric for in-class time essay. Unit 5: Suffering and short Triumph. Time Frame: March 2014-May 5, 2014.
Texts: Piano Lesson by August Wilson, Atonement by Ian McEwan, “A Rose for Emily” Sound and Fury by William Falkner , Krapp’s Last Tape by Samuel Beckett. Students will demonstrate the ability to: Understand the works’ complexity- structure, diction, theme, voice, character development and historical contexts Identify the effect of literary artistry Recognize the supporters most likely wanted, anachronism used in the narrative Identify traditional characterization and point of lake short, view and their modern variations Identify effective use of literary elements or techniques such as character development, plot, structure, and symbolism etc. in untraditional ways Understand the complexity and absurdism of a modern literary work Recognize the the cold war affect, relationship between modern art theories of 20 th century and their influence on lake story, literature Write an the world, essay to analyze a passage ( an excerpt from greasy lake short story, one of the works listed)- AP Prose analysis essay. And Time Keeping! Dialectical journals ( informal) Reading quizzes Five Micro-essays ( analysis on the effective use of literary techniques in a passage) Two in-class essays ( open-ended prompt and short an excerpt from one of the tidal, works of this unit) Teacher-created rubric for informal assessments College Board AP Lit Essay rubric ( prose analysis) Practice Multiple-Choice format and types of questions Discuss essay prompts. *Every student in the AP class will be programed to take the AP Literature and Composition Exam.
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The Short- and Long-Term Impact of greasy lake, Infrastructure Investments on Employment and Economic Activity in the U.S. Economy. In U.S. policymaking circles in Working Keeping recent years there have been recurrent calls to increase infrastructure investments. This is hardly a surprise, as increased infrastructure investments could go a long way to solving several pressing challenges that the greasy American economy faces. In the near term, the most pressing economic challenge for the U.S. economy remains the depressed labor market. As of May 2014, the share of mouse, prime-age adults (age 25–54) currently employed is just 0.5 percentage points higher than it was at the official end of the Great Recession in June 2009. And it is lake short story, more than 3.9 percentage points lower than during the labor market peak of the how did war affect mid-2000s, and 5.4 percentage points lower than its 1999 peak.
In the longer term, the most pressing economic challenges for the U.S. economy concern how to provide satisfactory living standards growth for the vast majority of people. Such growth requires two components: rapid overall productivity growth, and a stabilization (or even reversal) of the large rise in lake short income inequality that occurred in the three decades before the Great Recession, a rise in inequality that kept overall productivity growth from translating into living standards growth for most Americans. This report examines the short- and long-term economic and employment impacts of infrastructure investment. It examines three possible scenarios for infrastructure investment and tidal volume respiratory, estimates their likely impact on overall economic activity, productivity, and greasy lake short story, the number and types of jobs, depending on how the investments are financed. Burns Poem Mouse. The data show that by greasy lake short story far the biggest near-term boost to Working Memory and Time Keeping Essay, gross domestic product and jobs comes from financing the new investment through new federal government debt rather than a progressive increase in taxation, a regressive increase in taxation, or cuts to government transfer programs. Our research also shows that this debt-financed impact is story, greater than that deriving from increases in infrastructure investment that are driven not by direct public investments but through other actions, such as regulatory mandates. Key findings of the Dilemma through and Content Essay report are: Three potential infrastructure packages would yield from greasy short story $18 billion to $250 billion annually for infrastructure investment. Scenario one cancels all of the scheduled cuts stemming from the budget “sequester” (automatic, across-the-board cuts to discretionary spending called for in the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011), yielding an romeo for children average of greasy lake, $30 billion annually over the next decade for infrastructure investments. (As of January 2014, a third of the scheduled sequester cuts were cancelled for the next two years only.) Scenario two implements a package of green investments that includes a large increase in burns poem to a investments in the energy efficiency of residential and commercial buildings and upfront investments to construct a national “smart grid,” yielding $92 billion annually in infrastructure investments over the next decade.
Scenario three makes an greasy lake story ambitious investment in largely traditional infrastructure projects in transportation and utilities (particularly water treatment, distribution, and sewage systems) to nearly close the U.S. “infrastructure deficit” identified by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and yield $250 billion annually in infrastructure investment between now and 2020. In the near term, increases in infrastructure spending would significantly boost economic activity and employment. Under scenario one, a debt-financed $18 billion annual investment in infrastructure yields a $29 billion increase in GDP and 216,000 net new jobs by the end of the first year, with the increased levels then sustained over the next decade. Under scenario two, a debt-financed package of green investments totaling $92 billion annually boosts GDP by $147 billion and generates 1.1 million net new jobs by the end of the first year, with the increased levels then sustained over how did the next decade. Under scenario three, a debt-financed $250 billion annual investment boosts GDP by $400 billion and overall employment by 3 million net new jobs by the end of the first year, with the greasy short story increased levels then sustained over the seven-year life of the investment. Any method of making these infrastructure investments deficit-neutral reduces their impact on near-term activity and how did the cold, employment, but every method except cuts to government transfers still leaves a net positive impact. Over the long term, we can reliably predict only the greasy story impact of infrastructure investments on the composition, not the overall level, of labor demand.
Because the impact of infrastructure investments on burns poem mouse the overall level of greasy lake story, economic activity depends on the degree of productive slack in the economy, the stance of monetary policy, and how the investments are financed, it is tidal volume, impossible to reliably forecast the long-term (further than five years out) effects of such investments on the overall level of lake story, economic activity. However, we can reliably project the impact of infrastructure investments on the composition of labor demand. Even if these investments crowd out other forms of of joseph stalin, spending and do not affect the overall level of activity and employment, it remains the case that composition of employment supported by additional spending on infrastructure would be different than that of the economic activity it potentially displaces. Under all scenarios, jobs created are disproportionately male, Latino, and skewed away from younger workers. Under scenario one, male employment accounts for 77 percent of all jobs created, while under scenario two it accounts for 80.4 percent of all jobs created, and under scenario three it accounts for 74.1 percent, compared with an economy-wide average of 50.2 percent of all jobs being held by men. Under scenario one Latino employment accounts for 15.4 percent of all jobs created, while under scenario two it accounts for 16.2 percent of all jobs created, and under scenario three it accounts for 14.3 percent, compared with an economy-wide average of lake short, 12.3 percent.
Under scenario one, employment of young adults (under 25 years old) accounts for 9.3 percent of all jobs created, while under scenario two it accounts for 9.5 percent of all jobs created, and under scenario three it accounts for how did the cold war affect the world 7.8 percent, compared with an economy-wide average of 13.2 percent. Under all scenarios, jobs created are disproportionately filled by greasy lake workers without a four-year university degree. Under scenario one, workers with a bachelor’s degree or more education fill 23 percent of all jobs created, while under scenario two college-educated employment accounts for supporters stalin most to 19.6 percent of all jobs created, and under scenario three it accounts for 21.4 percent, compared with an economy-wide average of 32.6 percent. Under all scenarios, jobs created are disproportionately middle- and/or high-wage. Under scenario one employment in the bottom wage quintile accounts for just 9.5 percent of all jobs created, while under scenario two it accounts for 9.4 percent of lake, all jobs created, and Memory Essay, under scenario three it accounts for 11.2 percent of all jobs created, compared with an economy-wide average of 18.9 percent. Infrastructure investments provide the potential to boost economy-wide productivity growth. Productivity growth has slowed significantly in greasy lake story the U.S. economy, beginning even before the onset of the Great Recession.
Our analysis conforms with a large and growing body of research persuasively arguing that infrastructure investments can boost even private-sector productivity growth. An ambitious effort to increase infrastructure investment by $250 billion annually over seven years would likely increase productivity growth by 0.3 percent annually—a boost more than half as large as the productivity acceleration in and juliet the U.S. economy between 1995 and 2005, one that was attributed to information and greasy lake short story, communications technology (ICT) advances. A productivity acceleration of 0.3 percent would have measurable impacts on the estimated Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) and could allow macroeconomic policymakers to target significantly lower rates of unemployment. Extrapolating from the experience of the late 1990s, the NAIRU could be lowered by as much as 1 full percentage point by a sustained $250 billion annual increase in infrastructure investment. This could mean that more than 1 million additional workers each year find employment. List of poem to a mouse, acronyms used in this report. ASCE = American Society of Civil Engineers. GDP = gross domestic product. BCA = Budget Control Act.
ICT = information and communications technology. NAIRU = non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. GCC = global climate change. GHG = greenhouse gases. EPRI = Electric Power Research Institute. PPM = parts per million. CPC = Congressional Progressive Caucus. NIPA = National Income and Product Accounts. BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis. OMB = Office of Management and Budget.
EPI = Economic Policy Institute. ERM = Employment Requirements Matrix. BLS = Bureau of Labor Statistics. ARRA = American Recovery and greasy lake short, Reinvestment Act. PERI = Political Economy Research Institute. CPS = Current Population Survey. CBO = Congressional Budget Office.
CEA = Council of burns to a, Economic Advisers. MAEC = Moody’s Analytics’ Economy.com. CPS-ORG = Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group. QCEW = Quarterly Census of Employment and greasy story, Wages. U.S. = United States. MPC = marginal propensity to consume.
ZLB = zero lower bound. VAR = vector auto-regression. HELP = health, education, leisure, hospitality, business and professional services. Scenarios for infrastructure investments. Simple political realism about the current state-of-play of American fiscal policy argues that large-scale infrastructure investments financed by the federal government are unlikely in coming years. However, economic analysis stands apart from burns poem current politics, and the economic case for greasy lake story boosting these investments is strong—and perhaps made even stronger by of joseph stalin the growing threat of global climate change (GCC) caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Given these conflicting imperatives—political realism versus economic necessity—this report examines three different scenarios for infrastructure investments. The first looks at the implications for infrastructure investment if sharp cuts to federal discretionary spending called for in the Budget Control Act of greasy lake story, 2011 are cancelled.1 A 2013 budget deal signed into law does indeed cancel a portion (but just a portion) of the automatic sequester cuts for burns poem to a mouse the next two years. Greasy Short. Given this, the paper examines what reversing these cuts completely would mean for Memory and Time Keeping boosting future infrastructure investments. The second scenario is more ambitious, and addresses the need for the United States to transition to an economy that emits fewer greenhouse gases. It packages a mix of investments in energy efficiency in the building sector with start-up investments in greasy story a national “smart grid.” The dollar figure for building efficiency investments is taken from how did the cold war affect the world a (now-famous) McKinsey report detailing the benefits of energy efficiency. For this scenario, we identify all building efficiency investments that were identified by McKinsey as having a net negative cost over the useful lives of the projects. For the smart-grid investments, we relied on assessments from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) for the upfront costs. After estimating these two components of this “green” package of energy, we checked to greasy short, ensure that it would constitute a genuinely ambitious step toward mitigating GHG emissions, using work by Pacala and Socolow (2004). Pacala and and juliet for children, Socolow (2004) introduced the concept of the “stabilization wedge” of greasy lake, GHG abatement.
They essentially look at romeo for children the decline in carbon emissions needed to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of carbon at 450 parts per greasy lake, million (PPM) by 2054, a benchmark that they identify as the minimally ambitious goal for reducing the future costs imposed by climate change.2. They next divided the volume respiratory system entire wedge between carbon emissions projected to occur under a “business as usual” (BAU) scenario and the emissions that would be allowed under a scenario that kept carbon at less than 450 parts per greasy story, million into seven smaller “sub-wedges”. Next they identified a number of actions that would be sufficient to “fill” one of these smaller sub-wedges. So, for example, increasing fuel efficiency of 2 billion cars from 30 mpg to Memory Keeping Essay, 60 mpg would constitute one sub-wedge, while boosting coal-fired power plant efficiency by 50 percent would constitute another sub-wedge. The package of green investments that constitutes our second infrastructure investment scenario would seem to be ambitious indeed—probably coming close to short, accounting for well over half of a stabilization sub-wedge, meaning that this package would be moving the U.S. economy more than 10 percent of the way toward stabilizing GHG emissions at Working Memory 450 PPM by itself. The building investments alone likely account for greasy well over half of romeo for children, a stabilization wedge. Pacala and Socolow (2004) identify “cut[ing] carbon emissions by one-fourth in buildings and greasy lake, appliances” as a wedge. The McKinsey report estimates that the efficiency investments called for in it would lead to almost exactly a one-quarter reduction in carbon emissions (23 percent), with more than 60 percent of this efficiency effect coming from the buildings channel alone.
Further, EPRI has identified a number of ways a smart grid could facilitate the achievement of other stabilization wedges. How Did The Cold The World. For example, they note that a smart grid could accommodate an increase in electric and hybrid automobiles, which could help achieve the stabilization wedge possible through increased fuel efficiency of cars. And they note that household efficiencies would be much easier to achieve if energy savings stemming from them were more salient to households, and that this salience would be much easier to achieve through “smart metering” and other mechanisms that more closely tie household energy bills to their consumption patterns. The last scenario examines an greasy lake short story across-the-board increase in infrastructure spending concentrated in traditional transportation and utilities investments. The magnitude of this spending—$250 billion annually—is chosen to stalin most likely wanted, close the “infrastructure deficit” identified by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) in recent reports about the state of the nation’s infrastructure, including its most recent such report (ASCE 2013).
Scenario One: Undoing the short story discretionary spending caps imposed by poem to a mouse the 2011 Budget Control Act. In 2011, the U.S. Congress passed the Budget Control Act (BCA), which significantly reduced 10-year discretionary spending growth. Most of the American social insurance system (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the Affordable Care Act) was unaffected. However, because the vast bulk of public investments (including infrastructure investments) are financed by the discretionary side of the federal budget, these spending caps—including the now-famous budget “sequester”—have steep consequences for infrastructure spending. Figure A shows the share of total spending and public investment accounted for by each major budget category. The bars on short story the left of each two-bar set show the tidal share of total federal spending accounted for by each of the three major spending categories.
Nondefense discretionary spending accounts for 21.0 percent of total federal spending, defense spending accounts for 20.4 percent, while mandatory spending (dominated by the retirement security programs Medicare and Social Security as well as other health spending) accounts for 58.7 percent. The bars on the right of each two-bar set show the share of total federal public investment accounted for by each of the three major spending categories. Nondefense discretionary spending, despite accounting for short just a fifth of total spending, accounts for well over half of total public investment, 55.4 percent. Defense spending accounts for 39.3 percent, while mandatory spending accounts for just over 5 percent of total public investment. What this figure demonstrates is that any policy change that leads to large changes in the trajectory of discretionary spending will almost inevitably have large impacts on the future course of public investment. Average share of supporters wanted to, total U.S. federal spending and total federal public investment, by major budget category, 2010–2012. The data below can be saved or copied directly into short story Excel.
The data underlying the figure. Source: Author's analysis of unpublished data from the stalin likely Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Copy the code below to embed this chart on greasy short story your website. In estimating the romeo and juliet impacts on economic activity and employment from short undoing these spending caps, we assume that the composition of discretionary spending is essentially unchanged by burns to a shifts in the level of spending. It is theoretically true that cuts to lake short, infrastructure spending could be less or more steep than overall spending cuts, but this is nearly impossible to forecast. How Did. Further, the discretionary spending cuts currently constituting the policy baseline in the United States (i.e., the budget “sequester”) are across-the-board cuts to every category of greasy lake, discretionary spending, making the assumption that the composition of discretionary spending cuts will be unaffected by romeo the level in lake short story fact consistent with current budget law. While economic analysis of the nation’s infrastructure needs would drive public investment policy in a more rational world, it is important to emphasize what an uphill struggle it will be in coming years to overcome the romeo and juliet political barriers to increasing public investment. Figure B shows the lake short story implications for overall public investment if various 2014 budget proposals were passed. The budget proposals include, on the Democratic side, those from the White House (the Obama plan), the Senate Budget Committee (Murray plan), Democrats in the House of tidal respiratory, Representatives (House Democratic budget alternative), and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and, on the Republican side, that of the greasy lake story House Committee on how did the cold war affect the world the Budget (Ryan plan).
It demonstrates clearly the downward pressure of lake story, austerity on public investment possibilities, with nearly all budget proposals coming from the U.S. Congress, except the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) budget, calling for and juliet for children steep cuts in coming years. (See the text box titled “U.S. budget politics” for a broad overview of the differences between the budgets and an explanation of why there are so many competing budget proposals in U.S. politics today.) On the one hand, these projections show the widespread acceptance of large cuts in discretionary investment (and hence public investment) in lake short story coming years, which just highlights the Dilemma through Form Essay political hurdles to increased infrastructure spending. On the other hand, these scenarios show just how much room there is in coming years to lake short, boost infrastructure spending just by returning the public commitment to it to recent historic norms. Actual and implied public investment as a share of GDP under various 2013 U.S. budget proposals, 2000–2023. The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel. The data underlying the figure. Source: Author's analysis based on Dilemma through Form Bivens (2013) Copy the greasy short story code below to embed this chart on your website. The normal federal budget process in the United States essentially disintegrated between 2010 and 2013. Romeo. Because Republicans controlled the House of Representatives while Democrats controlled the Senate, no agreement could be reached on annual budgets. Instead, government spending levels were set with “continuing resolutions”—extensions of levels dictated by the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011, legislation passed to resolve the debt ceiling crisis of the summer of 2011.
The BCA mandated steep cuts in domestic discretionary spending, spending that must be appropriated each year and which largely excludes the expensive social insurance programs such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the newly passed Affordable Care Act. This failure to agree on annual budgets also led to a proliferation of competing budget proposals. Greasy Story. By custom, the budget committees of both the House of Representatives and the Senate are charged with submitting budget proposals, as is the president. Again, because the House budget committee was run by tidal volume Republicans while the Senate budget committee was run by Democrats, there were large differences between the respective budget committee proposals (shorthanded by the names of lake story, their respective chairs, with the Republican House plan known as the “Ryan plan” after Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), and the Democratic Senate plan as the “Murray plan” after Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.)). The White House budget proposal (shorthanded as the “Obama plan” after President Barack Obama) was very close to burns poem, the Murray plan. Besides these proposals, in recent years a number of caucuses within the House and lake short, Senate also have been putting forward alternative budget plans. The most ambitious of how did the world, these were the budget proposals forwarded by the Congressional Progressive Caucus (or CPC). Greasy Lake Short. The CPC budgets allowed for much larger deficits in romeo for children the early years of the budget window to finance infrastructure and other public investment programs aimed at spurring a full recovery from the Great Recession. In later years, the CPC called for significantly higher spending levels than other budget proposals, financed by higher (and more progressive) revenue levels.
Figure B in the main body of this report distills the key differences relevant to greasy lake short, the analysis in this report—the large differences among various budgets in nondefense discretionary spending levels (the portion of the budget that generally finances the large majority of Working and Time, infrastructure spending). Figure C demonstrates that “core” infrastructure spending likely constitutes a large share of overall public investment. The Figure examines the portion of short story, public investment classified as structures and does not cover equipment , as only for children, data on structures are broken down in detail that allows us to differentiate core infrastructure investment from other forms of lake story, public investment. Through And Content Essay. What the figure shows is that most of what is classified as public investment in greasy lake story official data sources on public investment in structures is indeed infrastructure spending (highways, transportation projects, water and Working, sewer projects, utilities, etc.). “Core” infrastructure investment and greasy story, health and education investment in the United States, as a share of GDP, 1947–2011. The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel. The data underlying the figure. Note: Core infrastructure investment includes highway, transportation, sewer, and water-treatment investments.
Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (Tables 1.1.5, 5.8.5a, and romeo and juliet for children, 5.8.5b) Copy the code below to embed this chart on greasy your website. A similar breakdown between core infrastructure and other public investments for the equipment component of public investments is not available. It seems safe to assume, however, that a large share of the public investment in equipment must also be devoted to core infrastructure projects as well. Airports, water treatment plants, and rail systems, for example, have investment needs that go far beyond the supporters of joseph stalin buildings sitting on them.
The message is clear: Unless the proposed cuts in discretionary spending in short story coming years are done with surgical precision to avoid cutting infrastructure investments, they will deeply impact annual investments. And it should be noted that the budget “sequester” explicitly disallows such discrimination among different discretionary spending priorities and demands across-the-board cuts. In order to assess the economic and employment impact of the extra infrastructure investment made possible by undoing the BCA spending caps, we need to supporters stalin likely to, know just what kinds of infrastructure investments are currently financed by short story the federal government. First, we translate proposed cuts in discretionary spending into supporters of joseph stalin likely to cuts in overall public investments, using the short story same data sources we used to construct Figure A (data sources which show the share of each type of federal government spending that is public investment instead of and juliet, public consumption). Lake Short Story. These data (available upon request) are non-public data supplied by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to EPI. The main contribution of the data is to identify how many dollars in each detailed budget function (of which there are over romeo and juliet 6,000) are dedicated to investment, as opposed to current consumption. Using these data we can estimate the greasy lake share of these cuts to public investment that will take the form of cuts to infrastructure spending specifically. Respiratory System. We do this by using data from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to allocate the cuts to infrastructure spending (simply based on our definition that infrastructure investments cover highway, transportation, sewer and water-treatment industries) to the various industries in our input-output model. Greasy Lake. Table 1 presents these allocations as gains: how much additional infrastructure spending could flow into volume respiratory system each of these industries if these proposed cuts were reversed. Overall it shows that a reversal of the proposed cuts would yield an average of $18 billion annually over the next decade for infrastructure investments. Annual industry spending (model inputs) under scenario one.
Note: Overall total may not sum due to rounding. Annual gains would take place over lake short story the next decade. Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Requirements Matrix and analysis of infrastructure investments made possible through ending budget sequester of the Budget Control Act of 2011. Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Unsurprisingly, the cuts—and thus gains—are heavily concentrated in the construction sector, as federally financed infrastructure projects are heavily concentrated in road building and other forms of how did the cold war affect, transit construction. Federally financed infrastructure projects also lean heavily toward the manufacturing sector, with transportation equipment (aerospace, ships and boats, and motor vehicles manufacturing) dominating. Greasy Lake Story. The high shares of aerospace and ship building could be driven in part by the cold the world the fact that defense spending accounts for a non-trivial share of total public investment. As defense spending is also cut by story the provisions of the BCA, one could in theory include these in tidal respiratory our overall measures.
However, for the purposes of this examination we exclude the aerospace and ship-building sectors, as they are probably less associated with traditional infrastructure projects. Scenario Two: Combining investments in building energy efficiency and the smart grid for greasy lake short story carbon mitigation. A second, more ambitious policy proposal combines large increases in infrastructure spending to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, along with start-up investments for a national “smart grid.” The impetus for examining this scenario is to stalin most likely wanted to, emphasize that the cost of out-of-date infrastructure is likely rising fast given the lake short enormous threat posed by global climate change driven by romeo greenhouse gas emissions. For example, a key part of American infrastructure is simply buildings—both residential and commercial, private and publicly owned. We now know that inefficiency of buildings is a huge contributor to excess carbon emissions, and that investments in energy-efficient buildings represent an enormous low-cost opportunity to reduce GHG emissions. Lake Short. While publicly owned buildings are the obvious first place to start an volume respiratory system infrastructure investment effort, it should be noted that the economics of GHG emissions imply that a substantial public investment even in boosting efficiency of privately owned buildings would yield high economic returns. Without externalities, inefficient buildings represent a cost only to their owners, and the case for including improvements to these inefficient buildings in an infrastructure effort is weak.
But with unpriced externalities, inefficient buildings—even those privately owned—inflict a cost on everybody, and the case for using public resources to improve them is greasy lake, much stronger. McKinsey and Company (2009) have famously identified more than $500 billion in energy efficiency opportunities that would have negative net economic cost and offer present-value returns of Working Memory Keeping Essay, nearly 100 percent over their useful lives. Short. Pacala and Socolow (2004) have identified improving energy efficiency of for children, buildings as a large enough opportunity to by itself account for greasy lake short story more than 10 percent of the total possibility for moving carbon emissions to and juliet, an economically sustainable level. Rogers (2007) has noted that many market failures even besides the unpriced externality of GHG emissions exist in greasy lake short story markets for energy efficiency investments, and that these market failures argue for a key public role in of joseph likely fostering this investment. All of this argues strongly that investing in energy efficiency of buildings would be an extraordinarily high-return activity. Utilities, particularly energy-providing utilities, are part of the classic definition of infrastructure. The utility system of the United States is in dire need of upgrade along numerous fronts: capacity, safety, reliability, and cost (EPRI 2011). Further, the need to foster a smooth transition to an economy where production is less carbon-intensive in the future will require a much different, and greasy short, much better, national system of electrical power generation. For example, the benefits of putting a price on Working and Time carbon emissions will only come to pass if electricity consumers reliably see a price signal from changes in electricity use. Today’s grid provides such household-level signals with considerable noise. A national “smart grid” could help provide such signals as well as improve electricity transmission along other margins (reliability, security, etc.).
The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI 2011) has undertaken a rigorous estimate of the costs and benefits of investing in a state-of-the-art smart grid for the United States. It finds that an investment (over 20 years) of $340 billion to $475 billion to establish a nationwide smart grid would yield a benefit/cost ratio (in present-value terms) of between 2.8 to 6.0. Part of this benefit includes the enabling role that a smart grid would play in implementing some of the stabilization “wedges” identified by Pacala and Socolow (2004). Greasy Story. For example, EPRI demonstrates that a key benefit of a state-of-the-art smart grid would be the capacity to provide charging stations for burns to a electrical vehicles. The switch from carbon-fuel-based vehicles to electric vehicles accounts for a stabilization wedge by itself in the Pacala and Socolow analysis. The portfolio of infrastructure investments packaged in this second scenario is obviously politically ambitious for the present moment in the United States.
However, it does serve as a useful reminder that potentially high-return investments are numerous, in large part because of the relative decline in public investment in recent decades (a decline reversed for lake short story a few years by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)). Tidal. Further, the economic returns to “green” investments in lake particular are likely rising quickly, as the costs of global climate change begin to manifest, and while policy initiatives aiming to put a price on GHG emissions have so far failed. A key benefit of pricing GHG emissions is to make investments in their mitigation profitable, and most likely, hence likely to be undertaken by private actors. But the failure to put a price on greasy lake short story these emissions in the United States does not have to mean that no action is of joseph likely wanted, taken on story this front. Instead, public investments, including infrastructure investments, can be begun even before price signals to drive private investments begin.
The model inputs for investments in volume respiratory system the smart grid were helped greatly by two previous reports. The first, a 2011 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), provided the overall cost, as well as providing a breakdown of this cost between transmission and distribution. Further, a report by Pollin, Heintz, and Garrett-Peltier (2009) for the Political Economy Research Institute (PERI) provides an estimate of the industrial inputs needed for investments to update the smart grid. We use the EPRI (2011) number for overall investment effort needed along with the PERI data on short story the allocation of of joseph stalin most likely wanted, investment flows into lake the industries in our model. This package of green investments—a large increase in efficiency investments in the residential and commercial building sectors, along with upfront investments to construct a national smart grid—would lead to $92 billion annually in Dilemma Form and Content Essay infrastructure investments over the next decade. In the case of the smart grid, the short industrial allocation of romeo for children, these investments is described in Table 2 . Annual industry spending (model inputs) under scenario two. Note: Annual gains shown would take place over the next decade. Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Requirements Matrix; EPRI (2011); and Pollin, Heintz, and Garrett-Peltier (2009) Copy the greasy story code below to embed this chart on your website. Again, given the emphasis on improving the and Time Essay efficiency of buildings, this package of infrastructure spending predictably leans heavily toward construction. However, there are also direct inflows into short story a number of manufacturing and and Time Essay, utility industries.
Scenario Three: An ambitious across-the-board increase in infrastructure spending. Our last scenario looks at a truly ambitious across-the-board increase in infrastructure spending, on a scale sufficient, for example, to close the accumulated “infrastructure deficit” identified by experts such as the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). This scenario was recommended, for example, by the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) in its budget proposals in recent years. ASCE issues an greasy lake short story annual “report card” on volume the nation’s infrastructure, and in recent years it has given the U.S. investment effort a failing grade (ASCE 2013). It identifies the short needed investment to erase the nation’s substantial “infrastructure deficit” between now and 2020 as $3.6 trillion. The Cold. Further, it estimates that only about half of this investment amount is likely to be provided under the greasy current trajectory of public investment. Given this, for our third scenario we target $250 billion in new infrastructure spending per poem to a, year until 2020, an amount that would close the remaining half of the needed investments over that time.
Because transportation systems, water distribution, water treatment, and sewage systems figure prominently in the ASCE report’s documentation of the nation’s infrastructure deficit, we allocate roughly three-quarters of the greasy short story entire $250 billion additional investments to these sectors (which includes construction activities). Volume System. The remainder is allocated to other utility sectors and to industries associated with efforts needed to expand high-speed Internet access throughout the lake short story country. The specific receiving industries for infrastructure spending under the third scenario were picked to correspond with these priorities. Table 3 shows the receiving industries, identified by volume BLS industry code. Annual industry spending (model inputs) under scenario three.
Note: Annual gains shown would take place between 2014 and 2020. Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Requirements Matrix and ASCE (2013) Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Near-term effects of infrastructure spending. In terms of projecting the near-term, net employment impacts of increased infrastructure spending under the scenarios presented in the previous sections, a number of pieces of economic context must be specified. First, how much economic slack exists—particularly in labor markets. Second, and short, related but not identical to the question of economic slack, how will monetary policy authorities likely respond to Dilemma through Form and Content Essay, a macroeconomically significant increase in infrastructure investments? Third, how will the story infrastructure investments be financed? Through public debt? Through increased revenues or user fees?
Or through private borrowing or retained earnings? In the case of near-term increases in infrastructure investments in the U.S. economy, the answers to the first two of these questions are unfortunately quite simple: There is a very large amount of supporters most, overall economic slack in the U.S. economy today, and monetary policymakers are highly unlikely to try to neutralize demand increases stemming from near-term infrastructure investments. These answers simply reflect that the United States is very far from having fully recovered from the Great Recession of 2008–2009. Figure D shows the amount of slack in greasy story two ways, the ratio of volume system, actual to potential gross domestic product (GDP) and the share of prime-age adults (25–54) who are employed.3 During the Great Recession (shaded in greasy short grey), both of these measures declined precipitously. Since the official end of the Great Recession, in contrast, the Memory Keeping reversal has been quite slow—and over the past year steady progress in improving each has nearly stopped completely. This argues strongly that the U.S. economy has large amounts of productive slack. Two measures of economic slack : Ratio of actual to potential GDP, and employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) for workers age 25–54, 2000–2013. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.
Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (Table 1.1.6), Congressional Budget Office (2012), and greasy story, Current Population Survey (CPS) public data series. Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Further, the Federal Reserve has continually committed to keeping monetary policy extraordinarily accommodative in coming years and has indeed noted that increased fiscal stimulus (like an increase in infrastructure spending) would be useful for macroeconomic stabilization (see, for example, Yellen (2013). Given this degree of economic slack and promise of monetary policy accommodation, it seems that the volume most natural assumption for how a near-term increase in infrastructure investments would be financed is simply through new federal government debt. This would allow the lake short story investments to have the largest impact on near-term economic activity and employment. However, we also calculate near-term impacts stemming from infrastructure investments that are financed by a progressive increase in taxation, a regressive increase in taxation, and cuts to government transfer programs. Of Joseph Stalin Likely To. Lastly, we discuss the likely macroeconomic impact of increases in infrastructure investment that are driven not by direct public investments, but through other actions, such as regulatory mandates. It should be noted that most of the analysis in this section will rely on a set of macroeconomic “multipliers” culled from various data sources.
While such multipliers were considered slightly controversial as recently as the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession, there has been a clear and greasy story, decisive intellectual shift in recent years in favor of the view that public spending can indeed help stabilize an economy with large amounts of supporters of joseph stalin most likely, productive slack when the monetary authority is accommodative (see the appendix for a long discussion of the debate over multipliers and discretionary fiscal policy as a macroeconomic stabilization tool). Table 4 reproduces a table from Bivens (2011), showing multipliers for various fiscal policy changes from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and Mark Zandi from Moody’s Analytics Economy.com (MAEC). We will use these and the method described in Bivens (2011) to construct our estimates of economic activity and employment growth spurred by increases in infrastructure investment of greasy lake story, various kinds. In brief, this method uses estimates of the total “fiscal impulse” created by a policy change (the increase in infrastructure investment, in this case) and then applies macroeconomic multipliers from various sources to poem mouse, measure the impact of the fiscal impulse on economic output (GDP). Next, we translate the incremental gain or loss in story GDP into the number of jobs supported by this increased activity. Comparisons of estimated macroeconomic multipliers.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (2012), Zandi (2011), and how did, the Council of Economic Advisers (2011) Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. General observations about these rankings of multipliers are worth noting. First, infrastructure investments have some of the greasy lake short highest multipliers in the table. Partly this stems from the fact that, compared with taxes and even transfer payments, there is no leakage that occurs from money being saved by households. By definition, infrastructure spending is spending, not savings. Working Memory And Time Essay. Further, infrastructure investments tend to be less import-intensive than overall spending, so there is less scope for short story leakages from imports as well. Second, multipliers on transfer payments (i.e., food stamps, unemployment insurance, and income support payments) rival or even exceed those from infrastructure investments, so paying for supporters most to stepped-up public investments in infrastructure by cutting government transfers is likely to be a poor strategy for boosting near-term economic activity and employment.
Third, progressive tax cuts (i.e., providing the bulk of the increase in after-tax income growth to households in the low and moderate end of the income distribution) have higher multipliers than regressive tax cuts, and business tax cuts have the lowest multipliers of all. This means that if one is determined to pay for increased public investment in infrastructure with tax increases, raising revenue progressively by taxing high-income households and businesses will provide the smallest countervailing drag on near-term activity and employment. Lastly, it should be noted that there has been some recent marking down of multipliers on infrastructure investments in CBO reports. However, the rationale for this marking down is clearly not an greasy lake story assessment of the economic effectiveness of infrastructure investment in spurring activity and employment. Instead, it reflects the political judgment of Working Essay, CBO that grants to state and local governments to finance infrastructure investments may result in greasy lake short story these governments just substituting the federal finance for their own revenue without increasing overall infrastructure spending. If this is true, this argues for a change in romeo and juliet for children design in greasy lake story infrastructure grants to subnational governments (say, by including maintenance-of-effort requirements in these grants), not an abandonment of infrastructure spending as a method of macroeconomic stabilization. Generally, such multipliers (and the job estimates of net new employment generated by how did the world them) are only significant and greasy lake, relevant during times of elevated unemployment. During other times, countervailing forces—both the monetary authority’s response as well as potential “crowding out” from higher interest rates—will neutralize much of the wanted increased activity spurred by the infrastructure spending. However, given that unemployment rates have been historically high for years and threaten to be high for years to lake short, come, these types of job estimates will likely be useful to inform policy debates for quite some time. These estimates of economic activity and poem, employment creation stemming from infrastructure spending financed by greasy lake federal government debt need no further steps.
For spending financed by either tax increases or cuts in government transfers, we can just apply “reverse multipliers” to obtain the countervailing impact on activity and jobs. It gets a bit trickier to assess any countervailing impact on economic activity and jobs stemming from infrastructure spending increases financed by private actors that are driven by, for example, regulatory change. But one could imagine a large increase in infrastructure spending driven by mandates on The Identity Dilemma and Content efficiency levels on new (or even existing) buildings or in utility transmission and generation (say, with a clean energy standard applied to all existing electrical utilities). Bivens (2012c) makes the case that increases in private-sector investments driven by regulatory changes will, in greasy lake short story today’s economy characterized by a large output gap, largely go through with very little countervailing effects in the form of romeo for children, reduced spending elsewhere in the economy. This is due to a number of lake short, factors. For one, there remains a huge excess of desired savings over the cold war affect planned investment, epitomized by the large (and growing) stash of liquid assets piling up on corporate-sector balance sheets. Unless the regulatory changes were extensive enough that they could not be easily financed (on net) from this excess accumulation of greasy lake story, liquid assets, it is very hard to see reasons why the resulting investments should drive up interest rates and crowd out other corporate investments or private consumption. Further, historically high profit margins (themselves a function of an burns poem economy too slack to short story, provide workers with the Memory bargaining power necessary to lake short story, generate wage growth in line with productivity) will act as a strong buffer against increased spending translating into higher prices that can choke off demand through this channel.
Producers have traditionally allowed profit margins to fall to keep the full amount of tidal system, aggregate demand increases from translating into higher prices (and hence choking off demand for their output). Bivens (2012c) estimates that as other nonlabor costs rise (say, costs imposed by greasy lake short regulatory burdens), unit profits tend to buffer about 20 percent of the increase on average in recent decades. Romeo For Children. However, given that today’s profit margins are far above historic averages, one imagines this buffer has become significantly thicker. Lastly, many researchers have noted that inflation arising from increased spending would actually be helpful in spurring economic recovery, and could well lead to faster growth in other sectors of the economy, given the very extraordinary circumstances in the current U.S. economy. A longstanding macroeconomic argument maintains that during normal economic times a higher price level will reduce the real purchasing power of lake story, fixed nominal wealth and hence reduce aggregate demand. However, another longstanding argument maintains that a higher price level also decreases the real burden of debt, not just wealth, and if the propensity to consume out of current debt is higher than the propensity to The Identity Form Essay, consume out of current wealth, then a higher price level, by effectively redistributing purchasing power from lenders to debtors, can actually raise aggregate demand. Eggerston and Krugman (2012) argue that this “debt-deflation” effect is greasy lake story, much more likely to occur in economies that have a large overhang of private debt, like the U.S. economy today. So, even if regulatory mandates that led to increased infrastructure spending somehow pushed up domestic prices in the U.S. economy, it is highly unlikely that this would reduce spending growth in other sectors of the economy.
With all of these considerations in for children mind, tables 5, 6, and 7 lay out the near-term impacts from an increase in greasy story infrastructure spending in each of the different financing options, for through each of the greasy story three infrastructure investment scenarios. Near-term impacts on stalin most likely activity and employment from Scenario One. Scenario One, again, tries to project the boost to infrastructure investment that would result from greasy short undoing caps to and juliet for children, discretionary spending imposed by the Budget Control Act of greasy short, 2011. Our estimate (detailed in the previous section on our investment scenarios) is that over supporters of joseph likely to the next 10 years reversing these discretionary caps would free up roughly $18 billion annually for (non-defense) infrastructure investment. The first column of Table 5 reports the near-term impact on greasy short GDP and employment stemming from this $18 billion boost in federally financed infrastructure investment if it is debt-financed. It uses multipliers based on data from the and juliet CBO, CEA, and MAEC, which are summarized in Table 4. For infrastructure spending we use a multiplier of 1.6—firmly in the middle range of estimated multipliers for this type of spending. This implies that the $18 billion (annual) increase in infrastructure spending yields $29 billion in additional GDP (primarily by the end of the first year, with the new increased level essentially sustained over the course of the investment period). Employment and GDP impacts of U.S. infrastructure investment under various financing options, Scenario One. Note: Multipliers are based on evidence reviewed in short story Bivens (2011) and Bivens (2012). Specifically, the multiplier for infrastructure investments is 1.6, the muliplier for volume respiratory progressive tax increases is (-) 0.9, the multiplier for regressive tax increases is (-)0.35, the multiplier for transfers is greasy short, 1.6, and following Bivens (2012), 20 percent of the stimulative effect of investments driven by burns regulatory mandates are crowded out.
For employment impacts, we assume each percentage point addition to GDP adds 1.2 million jobs to greasy lake short story, the economy. The total spending figures are based on the infrastructure investment scenarios described in the text. Source: Author's analysis of Bivens (2012) Congressional Budget Office (2013), Council of Economic Advisors and Moody's Analytics Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts. Copy the code below to embed this chart on Memory Keeping Essay your website. Unfortunately, this multiplier on infrastructure spending is short, unable to capture differences in economic activity spurred depending on and juliet for children the type of spending. The reason for short story this is that macroeconometric estimates of multipliers just are not that precise. The key barrier to estimating them is Dilemma through Form and Content Essay, that there is very little truly exogenous variation in such spending. What would be needed for clean empirical identification of the greasy short story effect of different types of experiments would be random assignment of different infrastructure projects across geographic spaces and economic contexts, along with a commitment from other macroeconomic policymakers (particularly the Federal Reserve) that no action would be taken to how did war affect the world, boost or restrain economic activity across these experiments.
This obviously cannot (and should not) happen. Further, the lake short story multiplier on economic activity in times when the Federal Reserve is not trying to counteract any stimulus from spending (as in the current U.S. And Time Keeping Essay. economy) is essentially a function of three parameters: the greasy short story marginal propensity to spend income generated by the spending, the marginal effective tax rate on income flows generated by Working and Time Keeping the spending, and the import content of demand generated by the spending. As each of these parameters rise, the estimated multiplier falls. Story. Any kind of direct government spending scores well on the first count; by definition the first round of spending is entirely not saved. This contrasts strongly with tax cuts. The marginal effective tax rate on income generated by any kind of direct spending is just not going to vary that much across infrastructure projects, as there is just not that much variation in income and Memory Essay, payroll tax rates across the bottom 90 percent of the lake short income distribution. This leaves the import content of Working and Time Keeping, final demand generated by infrastructure spending. Greasy Story. And again, because the U.S. economy is quite closed relative to many of its international peers, it is hard to imagine very large differences in the import content of infrastructure spending varying enough across types of romeo and juliet, infrastructure projects to make a large difference in greasy short story the final amount of (domestic) economic activity spurred by the spending.
To estimate the the world employment impacts stemming from increased economic activity, we start with the story evidence reviewed in Bivens (2011) estimating each 1 percent of volume system, generic GDP increase in economic activity will generate 1.2 million additional jobs. So, the $29 billion in additional annual spending spurred by infrastructure investment leads to 216,000 net new jobs created (primarily by the end of the first year, with the lake story new increased level essentially sustained over the course of the for children investment period). Columns (2) through (4) then examine the net impact of financing this increase in spending with progressive revenue increases, regressive revenue increases, and lake, cuts to government transfer payments, each in an amount equal to tidal system, the $30 billion boost to infrastructure spending. For each, we use multipliers based on the evidence examined in short story Bivens (2011). For regressive tax increases (by which we mean revenue raised disproportionately from lower and tidal volume, moderate-income taxpayers), we average the multipliers estimated for across-the-board payroll tax cuts and a refundable tax credit, yielding a multiplier of 0.9.
For progressive tax increases (revenue raised disproportionately from higher-income taxpayers), we average the multipliers that were estimated based on the overall extension of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts and a corporate tax cut (specifically, allowing accelerated depreciation of plant and equipment for tax purposes), yielding a multiplier of 0.3. Greasy Lake Story. Finally, for war affect government transfers, we average the multipliers for food stamps (officially the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP), unemployment insurance, and one-time lump-sum payments to lake, retirees, yielding a multiplier of 1.6. The bottom line is tidal volume respiratory system, simple enough: Any offset to the impact of infrastructure spending on the federal budget deficit blunts the GDP and employment impact of such spending. But, the short story biggest drag stems from trying to pay for infrastructure spending by cutting government transfers, which essentially neutralizes any near-term boost to activity or employment. Financing the boost to infrastructure investment through a progressive increase in taxes provides the respiratory system smallest countervailing drag on activity and employment, with GDP increasing by greasy lake story $22.5 billion and employment rising by 169,000 jobs even after the financing drag is factored in. The middle column in the table shows that financing the burns poem mouse infrastructure spending boost through a regressive increase in lake short story taxes still results in a $12.6 billion boost to GDP and an employment boost of The Identity through Essay, 94,500, but regressive tax increases do neutralize more than half of the greasy lake short story near-term stimulus.
In the stalin wanted to last column, we draw on the analysis of Bivens (2012c) to get a less-precise estimate of the impact of implicitly financing the increase in infrastructure investment through regulatory mandates. Bivens (2012c) examined the likely macroeconomic impact of a major environmental regulation that would have forced significant investment by owners of power plants to restrict emissions of toxic pollutants. It surveyed the literature on how an exogenous increase in privately funded investment was likely to crowd out greasy lake story other private spending during conditions that currently hold in how did the cold war affect the U.S. Greasy Story. economy. It found that because such investment is volume system, very unlikely to place appreciable upward pressure on lake short economy-wide interest rates, it was unlikely that it could be substantially “crowded out” by reduced spending elsewhere. Bivens (2012c) provides a high-end estimate that 20 percent of economic activity and employment generated by the regulatory mandate would be neutralized through reduced spending elsewhere in the economy. Column (5) hence reflects this 20 percent crowding out Dilemma Form and Content Essay if this amount of infrastructure investment were financed by lake short story regulatory mandates on private-sector actors rather than directly financed by the federal government. Near-term impacts on activity and employment from Scenario Two. Table 6 generates the same numbers for the more ambitious second scenario of infrastructure investment.
The starting amount of annual spending increases is $92 billion—more than triple the amount in stalin likely wanted to Scenario One. Column (1) indicates that the resulting GDP boost if this amount of spending were financed by an increase in federal debt is $147 billion, with 1.1 million jobs generated (primarily by the end of the greasy first year, with the new increased level essentially sustained over tidal volume respiratory system the course of the investment period). Employment and GDP impacts of U.S. infrastructure investment under various financing options, Scenario Two. Note: Multipliers are based on evidence reviewed in Bivens (2011) and short, Bivens (2012c). Specifically, the Working Memory and Time Keeping multiplier for infrastructure investment is greasy lake short story, 1.6, the muliplier for romeo regressive tax increases is (-)0.9, the multiplier for progressive tax increases is (-)0.35, the multiplier for transfers is 1.6, and following Bivens (2012c), 20 percent of the stimulative effect of investments driven by regulatory mandates are crowded out. For employment impacts, we assume each percentage-point addition to GDP adds 1.2 million jobs to the economy. The total spending figures are based on the infrastructure investment scenarios and greasy, are annual gains taking place over the next decade as described in the text. Source: Author's analysis of Congressional Budget Office (2012); Electric Power Research Institute (2011); and Pollin, Heintz, and Garrett-Peltier (2009) Copy the and juliet code below to embed this chart on your website. Column (2) indicates that financing this increase in infrastructure investment with progressive revenue sources leads to greasy lake short, a net increase in GDP of $115 billion, with employment increased by 862,500. Column (3) indicates that financing this increase in stalin likely to infrastructure investment with regressive revenue sources leads to a net increase in GDP of greasy, $64 billion with employment increased by 483,000.
Column (4) confirms that financing infrastructure investments with cuts to government transfers completely neutralizes any near-term boost to activity or employment. Column (5) again applies the (high-end) 20 percent crowd-out estimate from the cold war affect the world Bivens (2012c) to the gross increase in activity and short, employment spurred by the increase in infrastructure investment if it is financed through regulatory mandates rather than through direct public spending. How Did War Affect The World. Under this financing option, GDP would increase by nearly $129 billion, producing 966,000 jobs. Near-term impacts on activity and employment from Scenario Three. Table 7 generates the greasy short same numbers for the much more ambitious third scenario of infrastructure investment. The starting amount of annual spending increases is $250 billion—more than eight times the amount in to a scenario one. Column (1) indicates that the greasy lake short resulting GDP boost if this amount of spending were financed by an increase in federal debt is $400 billion, with 3 million jobs generated (by the end of the first year, with the level essentially sustained over the course of the of joseph stalin investment period). Employment and GDP impacts of U.S. infrastructure investment under various financing options, Scenario Three.
Note: Multipliers are based on evidence reviewed in Bivens (2011) and Bivens (2012c). Specifically, the multiplier for infrastructure investments is 1.6, the muliplier for regressive tax increases is (-)0.9, the multiplier for progressive tax increases is (-)0.35, the multiplier for transfers is greasy lake, 1.6, and how did the cold war affect, following Bivens (2012c), 20 percent of the stimulative effect of investments driven by lake short story regulatory mandates are crowded out. And Juliet For Children. For employment impacts, we assume each percentage-point addition to GDP adds 1.2 million jobs to the economy. The total spending figures are based on the infrastructure investment scenarios and are annual gains taking place between 2014 and 2020 as described in the text. Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Requirements Matrix industry codes receiving spending flows to finance across-the-board increase in greasy short story traditional infrastructure to close infrastructure deficit identifed by ASCE (2013) Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Column (2) indicates that financing this increase in infrastructure investment with progressive revenue sources leads to a net increase in GDP of $313 billion, with employment increased by over 2.3 million. Column (3) indicates that financing this increase in infrastructure investment with regressive revenue sources leads to a net increase in burns GDP of $175 billion with employment increased by greasy 1.3 million.
Column (4) confirms that financing infrastructure investments with cuts to government transfers completely neutralizes any near-term boost to activity or employment. Column (5) again applies the (high-end) 20 percent crowd-out estimate from Bivens (2012c) to the gross increase in activity and employment spurred by mouse the increase in greasy short infrastructure investment if it is financed through regulatory mandates rather than through direct public spending. Essay. Under the regulatory mandates option, GDP increases by $350 billion, and employment increases by 2.6 million. Caveats about near-term employment impacts: labor intensity of infrastructure investment. We cautioned above that these estimates of the near-term boost provided by greasy story infrastructure investment are highly context-dependent. So, these estimates would be totally uninformative about a program of infrastructure investments that, say, began in 2020, a year in which the overall state of the romeo economy is greasy short story, impossible to predict with any certainty. We would also caution that these boosts to GDP and employment are not cumulative. Under an infrastructure investment program that boosts this spending by, say, $30 billion annually for 10 years, these boosts to GDP and employment would manifest in the first year (roughly, some of the increase could take a bit longer to manifest), but would not continue to rise thereafter. These estimates to the near-term boost to GDP and through Form and Content, employment are increases in the level , not the growth rate , of these variables. This is because spurring increases in the growth of GDP or employment from public investment would require a steadily increasing contribution from year to lake, year. The Cold War Affect The World. So, once policymakers assign, say, $500 billion in total public investment in 2014, the only way public investment can boost the greasy lake short story level of GDP in The Identity Dilemma through Essay 2015 is to lake, increase that year’s public investment flow.
Making the same public investment effort each year for a number of war affect the world, years only increases the level of GDP in the initial year, and then provides no further boost thereafter. A further caution is that there is story, one possible way that these macroeconomic estimates of the how did the cold war affect the world employment impacts of infrastructure investments could be slightly biased: if the labor intensity of such investments differed markedly from the economy-wide labor intensity of production that these estimates are implicitly based on. In Figure E , we quickly check if such issues are severely biasing our results by comparing the average labor intensity (jobs created directly, and lake story, overall, including through supplier effects) of burns to a, our three scenarios of infrastructure investments with overall measures of labor intensity. We find that infrastructure investments are indeed less labor-intensive than economy-wide averages; each $1 million in infrastructure spending generates roughly 20–25 percent fewer jobs than each $1 million in general economic output. Direct and short story, total jobs supported by supporters stalin likely $1 million in lake final demand, economy-wide average and under three infrastructure investment scenarios. The data below can be saved or copied directly into volume Excel.
The data underlying the figure. Note: This chart shows the greasy lake short story relative labor intensity of infrastructure investment. Source: Author’s analysis of of joseph stalin most likely to, data from Employment Requirements Matrix (ERM) data supplied by greasy short story the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. This decreased labor intensity is driven by a couple of factors. First, manufacturing activity in and juliet for children the United States is far less labor-intensive than economy-wide averages. There has been extraordinarily rapid automation and capital-deepening in this sector for greasy lake short story decades.
Globalization has surely contributed to Working Keeping, this in the United States, as standard trade theory argues that increased opportunities for trade should (and almost surely did) lead capital-abundant countries like the United States to lake short story, focus tradable-goods production in capital-abundant industries and supporters of joseph stalin likely, shed production in labor-intensive sectors. One, however, should be careful to lake story, not assume this move toward capital-intensive production holds generally. The same logic of globalization that pushes U.S. production toward capital-intensive sectors works in reverse for many other countries. Labor-abundant countries (like those in much of the global South) should actually increase production in labor-intensive sectors as a result of global integration. Second, the for children construction sector is a very input-intensive sector. But the problem from the perspective of raw job creation is that many of these inputs come from the very capital-intensive manufacturing sector, and this leads to total labor intensity of construction spending that is even a shade below economy-wide averages as well.
This argues that a strategy aimed at maximizing the number of jobs generated through infrastructure investments needs to carefully pick sectors that receive direct spending flows. Of course, since construction and manufacturing industries both are notably less labor-intensive than economy-wide averages (and utilities even more so), it may be quite hard to find traditional infrastructure projects that will generate a greater-than-average number of jobs through direct and supplier channels. However, the lower number of jobs generated through direct and supplier channels could well be counterbalanced, at greasy lake short story least in part, by the higher wages and poem mouse, capital incomes generated through such spending. This is true essentially by definition: If $1 million in final demand for industry X supports fewer jobs than $1 million in greasy lake short final demand for industry Y , then industry X must either have higher wages or see more of the income generated through final demand flow to capital owners. These higher labor and capital incomes likely will boost the Keynesian re-spending multiplier estimates that result from infrastructure spending. Additionally, we should note here an important distinction, that between the to a mouse implicit employment multiplier of lake short, a given amount of spending versus the implicit employment multiplier of a specific job. The Identity Through Essay. Because manufacturing and construction activity in the U.S. economy are capital and intermediate-input intensive, this means that the direct and supplier jobs supported by a given spending flow are lower than if that spending flow went into other industries.
But, the high capital and intermediate input intensity means that each job in manufacturing and construction is greasy short, associated with the support of how did the cold war affect the world, many more jobs in other sectors. To say it another way, it might cost a bit more to generate a job in construction and manufacturing, but this job will support more jobs in greasy lake short ancillary sectors than a job created more cheaply in other sectors. Evidence on the employment multipliers of jobs across sectors is presented in Bivens (2003). It is important to note again that the Dilemma through and Content estimates of near-term economic activity and employment in greasy story this section are highly context-dependent and will not be valid during periods when there is substantially less economic slack. The next section will look at the types of jobs likely to be created through these scenarios of infrastructure investment, and these estimates of the structural employment composition of Working Memory and Time Keeping Essay, infrastructure investments are much less context-dependent and should hold for investments undertaken over at least the next decade and do not depend on the extent of economic slack. Long-run estimates of the labor market impact of infrastructure investments. Assessing the composition (as opposed to net new level) of employment generated through infrastructure investments takes a much different set of tools than assessing the near-term impacts on net economic activity and employment. Further, such compositional impacts will hold regardless of the state of the larger macroeconomy. To assess the composition effects of infrastructure investments, we primarily rely on two datasets.
The first is the greasy lake employment requirements matrix (ERM) generated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as part of its employment projections program. The ERM, based on extensive input-output relationships between industries and occupations, provides data on direct employment and employment in supplier industries generated by a given amount of spending on Working final output of 195 separate industries. So, $1 million spent on the final output of the greasy automobile manufacturing sector generates X number of jobs directly in this industry, but also X jobs in the steel manufacturing industry, Y jobs in the glass manufacturing industry, Z jobs in romeo and juliet for children the accounting services industry, etc. This information on supplier industries is particularly important in assessments of infrastructure investments. Spending on the final output of construction and greasy lake story, manufacturing (the two most prominent input sectors in infrastructure-investment packages) generates many more supplier jobs than other sectors, so a full accounting of jobs (number and composition) generated through increased activity in them demands analysis of how did war affect, supplier industries. The second core dataset used in this analysis is the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly survey of roughly 60,000 households that is lake story, used to estimate the national unemployment rate (among other things).
Workers surveyed in the CPS are asked their industry of employment. While the supporters of joseph stalin wanted industry coding scheme used in the CPS differs from that used by the BLS ERM, we developed a crosswalk between them that allowed a near-perfect match. The key advantage to merging the ERM with the CPS is that the latter (as a household survey) contains rich information on demographics and labor-force characteristics of a given industry’s workforce. For this study, we have used information on gender, race, union status, educational attainment, and wage levels to greasy short story, assess the for children composition of employment. To gain sufficiently large sample sizes in each of the 195 industries to greasy short, make reliable estimates, we pooled four years of CPS data (2008 to 2012). Data on the demographic and labor-force characteristics of each of the 195 industries’ workforces are available from the author upon tidal respiratory system, request. In the lake story language of matrix algebra, the total number of jobs created through a given vector of spending can be represented as follows. Let i be the Dilemma and Content 195?1 vector with 195 rows (one for each industry) and only one column, which indicates how much new infrastructure spending has been earmarked for each industry.
Obviously, many (most, in fact) of the entries in greasy short this vector will be zeroes—as very few industries will receive money directly (retail trade, for example, is not generally a sector that people think of supporting directly in the name of improving the poem nation’s infrastructure). Let e be the 195?195 ERM. Each of the 195 columns and rows corresponds to a single industry. A given column represents $1 million in greasy lake final demand. Each of the 195 rows in this column displays how many jobs are supported in every industry by Dilemma Form and Content Essay this $1 million in final demand for spending in the industries that directly receive infrastructure investments. While the single-largest share of total jobs supported by $1 million in construction spending is greasy lake short story, always in the directly receiving industry itself (and generally on the diagonal of the how did the cold the world matrix), nearly all industries see at least some share of the total jobs supported through infrastructure investments. To estimate this number of jobs supported by infrastructure investment, J , simply perform the following matrix operation:
This operation yields a 195?1 vector, with 195 rows again corresponding to greasy lake short story, each industry in the model. The single column summarizes how many jobs in the cold war affect each industry are supported by the given spending on infrastructure. Perhaps counterintuitively, even though direct spending may occur in a small number of rows (sometimes just one) of our initial 195?1 spending vector, there will be very few zeros in the rows of the 195?1 jobs vector output. Almost all kinds of production require a huge array of inputs from story nearly every other industry. Most of the jobs created in supplier industries through this amount of construction spending will be very small relative to volume respiratory system, the jobs directly created in construction, but non-zero job support will be widespread. It is important to note that the number of jobs supported by infrastructure spending output from the greasy lake short jobs model is a measure of gross, not net, job creation. That is, if a given amount of infrastructure spending supports 1 million jobs in through and Content total, this does not mean that the economy as a whole will see a net increase in employment of 1 million. Rather, a portion of these 1 million jobs may be pulled from currently employed sectors of the economy.
Again, the macroeconomic multipliers identified in the previous section are far superior in assessing the greasy lake net job creation impacts of infrastructure spending. That said, the gross jobs numbers identified in tidal volume our model do convey important information. For one, they give a good relative ranking of the labor intensity of different kinds of spending and can, by greasy short themselves, allow judgments to be made about the best place to supporters of joseph most likely wanted, engage in investment spending if the goal is to increase the greatest number of job opportunities in the economy. Greasy Lake Short Story. And, even more importantly, it is the romeo and juliet gross number of jobs created that must be combined with the types of jobs created that will allow researchers to judge how relative labor demand for different subpopulations in the labor market will fare. This point will be made plain in the section below where we examine how the short number and romeo and juliet for children, type of greasy short story, jobs created through infrastructure spending result in changing demands for workers with different levels of educational attainment. Next, we simply multiply the Dilemma through Form and Content number of jobs created in each industry (either through direct spending or through supplier effects) by the industry demographic shares and then sum these up across industries to get the total number of jobs in each category (both direct and supplier jobs) that are created through a given amount of infrastructure spending. Again, in the language of short, matrix algebra, this can be expressed as follows. Let d be the Dilemma Essay 195?22 vector of demographic characteristics by industry (these 22 demographic categories are those listed in short story Tables 8–10 of this paper). Define f as the 1?22 vector of jobs supported in each demographic category through a package of Working and Time Keeping Essay, infrastructure investment and lake short story, compute it as: Tables 8, 9, and 10 present the outcomes, showing the total number of jobs, broken down into the cold direct and supplier jobs, generated by scenarios one, two, and three, respectively. Additionally, the composition of greasy short story, these jobs by demographic and poem mouse, labor-force characteristics is also presented.
Employment impact by demographic group : Scenario One ($30 billion) Source: Author's analysis of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata and ERM from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as described in text. Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Employment impact by greasy short demographic group : Scenario Two ($92 billion) Source: Author's analysis of romeo and juliet for children, Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata and ERM from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as described in text. Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.
Employment impact by demographic group : Scenario Three ($250 billion) Source: Author's analysis of story, Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata and ERM from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as described in text. Copy the code below to embed this chart on burns to a mouse your website. Outputs from infrastructure investment Scenario One. In the first scenario, the $18 billion annual increase in lake story infrastructure spending from lifting BCA spending caps is Keeping, sufficient to support roughly 139,000 jobs, with 83,000 direct jobs in industries receiving the lake spending flows and through Form, 56,000 jobs in industries that supply intermediate goods to short, the final industries.
This job count does not include jobs “induced” by Keynesian effects. There are essentially three methods one could take for estimating the number of induced jobs created. The first would assume that the net employment impacts consistent with the The Identity through top-down approach to estimating economic activity and jobs created through infrastructure spending used in the previous section are preserved regardless of the labor intensity of lake short, jobs created through the direct and how did the cold the world, supplier channels estimated here. Greasy Lake. In this case, one could just take the Keeping Essay difference between the overall macroeconomic estimates of employment creation and the numbers supported in direct and supplying industries as the “induced” job creation; this numbers roughly 76,000 jobs supported through Keynesian multiplier effects. Lake Short. This method implicitly assumes that the extra labor and capital incomes associated with each job generated through the direct and supplier channels makes up one-for-one for the lower-than-average job counts per $1 million in final demand through infrastructure spending. Romeo For Children. However, there is very little direct evidence to short story, support an assumption this strong. The second approach would assume that the ratio of jobs generated through the direct and supplier channels to total jobs created is the tidal volume same as the ratio of economic activity generated through the direct flow of greasy story, spending and induced effects, i.e., the macroeconomic GDP multiplier.
For the infrastructure investments assessed in this report, this ratio is 1/1.4. For this first scenario of infrastructure investments, this would lead to an estimate of just under 56,000 induced jobs. This method, however, yields a much-reduced overall number of jobs generated through infrastructure spending, and implicitly assumes that even the jobs induced through infrastructure investment are less labor-intensive per $1 million in final demand than economy-wide averages. The last approach would be to simply average these two approaches. This would allow the total amount of employment spurred by infrastructure investment to be lowered (correctly) by the fact that the direct and supplier industries are less labor-intensive on average, yet would not carry through the strong and not obviously correct assumption that even jobs induced through infrastructure investments are less labor-intensive than the economy-wide average. Poem Mouse. In the greasy lake short story first scenario, the tidal respiratory average of these two approaches is 66,000 induced jobs. Finally, we should note again that long-run estimates of story, induced jobs are essentially impossible to forecast. During most economic times, the level of overall employment in the U.S. economy is primarily driven by decisions made by the Federal Reserve, which has generally succeeded in setting the overall unemployment rate for the economic generation before the Great Recession struck. To be clear, the Dilemma and Content Essay Fed’s unemployment target has often been too conservative, and they likely have used monetary policy to keep unemployment rates higher than they needed to be to foster inflation stability (the second prong of the Fed’s “dual mandate”). But, they have hit the targets they aimed for in reasonable amounts of greasy, time, at least until the Great Recession. Characteristics of direct and supplier jobs.
As the receiving industries are heavily tilted toward construction and manufacturing (which is naturally going to be the case for infrastructure investments), the characteristics of jobs created through this spending skews heavily toward these sectors, which are quite different from the rest of the economy. For example, 77 percent of the total jobs created through these investments are held by men, including 85.4 percent of the direct jobs. Working And Time Essay. Even the supplier jobs, however, are 64.9 percent male, compared with an economy-wide average male share of employment of lake short, just 50.2 percent. The share of The Identity Dilemma through, jobs supported through this scenario of infrastructure investments accounted for by non-Hispanic whites is actually quite close to the economy-wide averages: 72.9 percent of these jobs relative to non-Hispanic whites’ 71.9 percent share of overall employment. Lake Story. The share of non-Hispanic whites in jobs supported in direct versus supplier industries is essentially identical. Non-Hispanic blacks are significantly under-represented in jobs generated through this infrastructure spending scenario, with 5.9 percent of how did the cold the world, jobs, compared with an overall non-Hispanic black employment share of 8.7 percent. Much of greasy story, this is driven by the low share of the cold war affect, non-Hispanic blacks in direct jobs generated through infrastructure spending, 4.7 percent. Conversely, Hispanics are over-represented in jobs supported by greasy story infrastructure spending, with a share of 15.4 percent, compared with the tidal system 12.3 percent share of short, Hispanics in overall employment.
This over-representation is the cold war affect the world, entirely driven by a relatively high Hispanic share in direct jobs generated through infrastructure spending, 17.6 percent. In regards to age, infrastructure investments in greasy lake this scenario skew heavily toward the and juliet for children employment of short story, prime-age workers (25 to 54 years old), with this group accounting for 72.6 percent of overall job creation through infrastructure, relative to their 66.9 percent share of overall employment. Older workers (55 and over) are roughly proportionately represented relative to economy-wide averages, so it is younger workers (younger than 25) who are disproportionately under-represented in jobs supported by infrastructure investments. Again, these trends are largely driven by jobs supported through direct spending in romeo infrastructure, not jobs supported in supplier industries. Educationally, jobs supported by infrastructure investments in this scenario skew toward fewer credentials: 12.7 percent of jobs supported are held by those who do not have high school degrees, compared with 9.4 percent of overall employment. This is largely driven by the 14.9 percent share of direct jobs holders that lack high school degrees. On the higher end, 23.0 percent of jobs supported through infrastructure spending in this scenario are filled by greasy lake story someone with a bachelor’s degree or more education, compared with 32.6 percent of overall employment. Only 18.5 percent of direct jobs created through infrastructure spending in The Identity Form and Content this scenario include workers with a bachelor’s degree or more education.
However, despite this relative lack of formal educational credentials, the jobs generated through infrastructure spending in this scenario are much less likely to pay low wages than the economy-wide average. Only 9.5 percent of jobs generated through infrastructure investments in this scenario, and only 7.0 percent of jobs directly generated, are in the overall bottom quintile of the wage distribution. And only 18.0 percent of jobs generated through infrastructure spending in this scenario, and only 17.5 percent of jobs directly generated, are in the second-lowest wage quintile. Conversely, 23 percent of jobs generated through infrastructure spending in lake story this scenario, and 23.3 percent of jobs directly generated, are in the highest wage quintile. In the second scenario, the $92 billion annual increase in infrastructure spending derived from investing in building energy efficiency and the smart grid would support nearly 888,000 jobs, with over 599,000 directly in industries receiving the spending flows and 288,000 in industries that supply intermediate goods to the final industries.
Again, this job count does not include jobs induced by how did the cold war affect Keynesian effects. Using the three methods described in lake story the section on Scenario One outputs for Essay job creation, one finds that the induced jobs created in Scenario Two number 210,000 jobs, 355,000 jobs, and 282,500 jobs, respectively. Characteristics of direct and supplier jobs. Overall, the construction sector accounts for an especially significant weight in the overall investment package in this case, and its job characteristics are even more different from the rest of the greasy short story economy than are jobs in the manufacturing sector. This reveals itself perhaps most starkly in the breakdown of jobs allocated between male and female workers: 80.4 percent of the total jobs created through investments in this second scenario are held by men, including 87.8 percent of the direct jobs. Even the supplier jobs, however, are 65.2 percent male, compared with an economy-wide average male share in employment of just 50.2 percent.
The share of jobs supported through this scenario of infrastructure investments accounted for by non-Hispanic whites is actually quite close to the economy-wide averages: 73.4 percent of these jobs, compared with a 71.9 percent share of overall employment. The share of non-Hispanic whites in jobs supported in direct versus supplier industries is, just like in the first scenario, essentially identical. Non-Hispanic blacks are even more significantly under-represented in jobs generated through this infrastructure spending scenario than under the first scenario, with just 5.4 percent of jobs, compared with an overall non-Hispanic black employment share of 8.7 percent. Dilemma Through Essay. Much of this is driven by the low share of greasy story, non-Hispanic blacks in direct jobs generated through infrastructure spending, 4.4 percent. Conversely, Hispanics are even more over-represented in jobs supported by Keeping infrastructure spending in this scenario than in the first, with a share of 16.2 percent, compared with the greasy story 12.3 percent share of Hispanics in supporters of joseph likely to overall employment. This over-representation is again predominantly driven by a relatively high Hispanic share in direct jobs generated through infrastructure spending, 17.9 percent. In regards to age, infrastructure investments in this scenario skew even more heavily toward the employment of prime-age workers (25 to greasy lake short story, 54 years old) than in the first scenario, with this group accounting for 72.6 percent of overall job creation through infrastructure, relative to their 66.9 percent share in overall employment.
Further, infrastructure investments in this scenario see significant under-representation of both older workers and poem to a, younger workers (younger than 25). Younger and lake, older workers account for 9.5 and 17.8 percent of jobs, respectively, supported by infrastructure investments in this scenario, compared with economy-wide averages of 13.2 and The Identity Essay, 19.9 percent. Again, these trends are largely driven by greasy lake short story jobs supported through direct spending in infrastructure, not jobs supported in supplier industries. Educationally, jobs supported by infrastructure investments in this scenario skew even more heavily toward fewer credentials than in the first scenario: 13.7 percent of jobs supported are held by those who do not have high school degrees, compared with 9.4 percent of overall employment. This is largely driven by the 15.5 percent share of job holders supported by how did the cold the world direct spending who lack high school degrees. On the higher end, only 19.6 percent of job holders supported through infrastructure spending in this scenario have a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with 32.6 percent of the greasy lake overall population. Only 15.2 percent of direct jobs created through infrastructure spending in this scenario include workers with a bachelor’s degree or greater. Again, however, despite this relative lack of formal educational credentials, the jobs generated through infrastructure spending in this scenario are much less likely to pay low wages than the economy-wide average. Only 9.4 percent of jobs generated through infrastructure investments in this scenario, and only 7.1 percent of jobs directly generated, are in the overall bottom quintile of the wage distribution.
In this scenario, however, the large under-representation of and Time, jobs in the lowest wage quintile is not matched by greasy lake short over-representation in poem the highest quintile. Instead, it is the middle and upper-middle quintiles that see a large over-representation of jobs supported by infrastructure investments in this scenario: 24.6 percent and 26.2 percent of jobs generated through this scenario’s infrastructure investments are accounted for by the greasy third and burns to a mouse, fourth wage quintiles. In both cases this is driven more by wages in direct industries, although jobs supported by supplier industries are also mildly over-represented in these wage quintiles relative to greasy story, the economy-wide average. In the third scenario, the $250 billion annual increase in infrastructure spending made possible through an across-the-board increase would support more than 2.2 million jobs, with nearly 1.5 million directly supported in industries receiving the spending flows and just under 800,000 jobs supported in industries that supply intermediate goods to the final industries. Again, this job count does not include jobs induced by Keynesian effects. Using the three methods described in the section on scenario one, outputs for job creation, one finds that the induced jobs created in scenario three number 1.8 million jobs, 900,000 jobs, and 1.4 million jobs, respectively. Characteristics of direct and supplier jobs.
The receiving industries in poem mouse this scenario are again heavily tilted toward construction and manufacturing (which is naturally going to be the lake case for infrastructure investments). Largely as a result, 74.1 percent of the total jobs created through investments in this third scenario are held by men, including 79.1 percent of the direct jobs. Even the Dilemma through and Content supplier jobs, however, are 64.5 percent male, compared with an economy-wide average male share in greasy lake story employment of just 50.2 percent. The share of jobs supported through this scenario of infrastructure investments accounted for by non-Hispanic whites is close to burns poem mouse, the economy-wide averages: 69.1 percent of these jobs relative to a 71.9 percent share of non-Hispanic whites in overall employment. Lake. The share of non-Hispanic whites in poem to a mouse jobs supported in direct versus supplier industries is lake, very close.
Non-Hispanic blacks account for 10.0 percent of jobs in this scenario, compared with an tidal volume system overall non-Hispanic black employment share of 8.7 percent. Greasy Lake Short Story. Much of this is driven by the relatively high share of romeo and juliet for children, non-Hispanic blacks in direct jobs generated through infrastructure spending, 11.2 percent. Hispanics are again slightly over-represented in short jobs supported by infrastructure spending in this scenario, with a share of 14.3 percent, compared with the 12.3 percent share of Hispanics in overall employment. This over-representation is again predominantly driven by a relatively high Hispanic share of direct jobs generated through infrastructure spending, 15.1 percent. In regards to how did the world, age, the employment of greasy lake short, prime-age workers (25 to 54 years old) accounts for 70.4 percent of overall job creation through this infrastructure scenario, relative to their 66.9 percent share of overall employment. Further, infrastructure investments in supporters stalin likely this scenario see significant under-representation of younger workers (younger than 25), with this group accounting for 7.8 percent of jobs supported by infrastructure investments, compared with an economy-wide average of 13.2 percent. Older workers are slightly over-represented, accounting for 21.9 percent of jobs supported in this infrastructure investment scenario, compared with an greasy lake short story economy-wide average of The Identity Dilemma through Form Essay, 19.9 percent. Again, these trends are largely driven by jobs supported through direct spending in short infrastructure, not jobs supported in poem supplier industries.
Educationally, jobs supported by infrastructure investments in this scenario skew slightly more heavily toward fewer credentials, with 11.2 percent of jobs supported held by those without high school degrees, compared with 9.4 percent of overall employment. On the greasy higher end, only 21.4 percent of those in stalin wanted to jobs supported through infrastructure spending in this scenario have a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with 32.6 percent of employees overall. Again, however, despite this relative lack of formal educational credentials, the jobs generated through infrastructure spending in this scenario are much less likely to pay low wages than the economy-wide average. Lake Story. Only 11.2 percent of romeo, jobs generated through infrastructure investments in lake this scenario, and only 10.0 percent of jobs directly generated, are in Working Memory and Time Keeping the overall bottom quintile of the wage distribution. Degree and treatment of residential construction bias in greasy lake short our results. The construction sector is hugely important in infrastructure investment, accounting for a disproportionate share of such spending relative to its economy-wide importance.
Further, because construction is relatively labor-intensive compared with many other forms of through Form and Content, infrastructure spending (if not compared with economy-wide averages), it has large impact on employment estimates spurred by such spending. However, the construction activity undertaken in greasy story infrastructure spending projects is overwhelmingly nonresidential construction. Yet neither of the core datasets used in this analysis—the BLS ERM and the CPS—disaggregate the overall construction sector into residential versus nonresidential construction. If the Working Memory Keeping demographic and/or labor force characteristics of the residential construction sector are notably different than the lake short rest of the construction sector, then the estimates above may be biased. More specifically, one could imagine that the residential sector of construction is tidal volume respiratory, more Hispanic and less likely to story, be unionized than the nonresidential sector. We have been unable to find any previous attempt to assess the extent of this bias. Therefore we propose a test to examine how much this issue biases our results. Our approach is to use variation provided by state-level differences in the share of the overall construction workforce that is in the residential sector, as well as state-level differences in the demographic and labor-force characteristics of the overall construction workforce, to see if residential-heavy state construction workforces are also disproportionately Latino and/or characterized by high union density. Figure F1 is a scatterplot showing the bivariate relationship between the share of construction employment that is residential and the share of for children, a state’s construction sector that is Latino, averaged across all years in our sample. The full scatterplot shows little relationship (confirmed by a bivariate regression), but if one removes two data points, Texas and Washington, D.C. ( Figure F2 ), a positive relationship between the residential share of construction employment and share of the construction workforce that is Latino does appear (and is also confirmed by a bivariate regression).
Figures F3 and F4 show similar scatterplots, but this time examining union density as the relevant labor force characteristic. F3 shows, for lake all states, the relationship between the average unionization rate of construction in the state and the residential share of construction employment in the state; there is no apparent relationship in the scatterplot. Scatterplot F4 controls for overall union density in Dilemma Form each state by looking at the difference between union density in construction relative to union density in the state overall. This still shows little obvious relationship to the residential share of construction employment in a state. Source: Author’s analysis of Current Population Survey microdata. Copy the code below to greasy lake story, embed this chart on your website. Next, we test to see if the relationships (or lack thereof) in the simple bivariate scatterplots hold up in multivariate regressions. Supporters Stalin Most Likely Wanted. We run regressions that examine the correlation between the lake story Latino share of overall construction employment and supporters of joseph most wanted to, the share of the construction workforce that is unionized in a given state and the residential share of short story, construction employment. Table 11 shows the results from multivariate regression testing the relationships in the scatterplots for robustness. It adds a number of controls to examine whether or not the bivariate relationships examined in Figure F continue to hold.
Testing for bias in demographic outcomes of construction investments. * Denotes significance at to a 5% level. Source: Author's analysis of short story, data from the Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages (QCEW), as described in text. Copy the Working Keeping Essay code below to embed this chart on greasy lake your website. Results on Latino share of population. Specifically, the through Form and Content Essay regression in greasy short column (1) relates the Latino share of construction employment to the residential share of construction employment and includes state unemployment rates, state and year fixed effects, and a state-specific time trend. The coefficient on the residential share of construction employment is economically significant, but does not pass conventional thresholds of poem to a, statistical significance (significant only at the 25 percent threshold). Moreover, we should account for the possibility that high shares of lake, residential construction may be associated with overall Latino population in The Identity Dilemma a state, not just construction workers. This check is greasy, particularly important if rising Latino population shares actually cause higher rates of residential investment. Including this state Latino population share reduces the size of the coefficient on the residential share of construction employment, as shown in Column (2).
It is certainly possible, of course, that this examination can miss ways in war affect which a larger residential share in overall construction could have a higher share of Latino employment than the greasy short nonresidential sector. We control for system a state’s overall population that is Latino in our regressions. But if, for example, Latino workers are disproportionately mobile across state lines and actively seek work in lake residential employment, then both the Latino share of state population and the Latino share in residential employment would rise as workers moved to find residential construction jobs. We assessed this by romeo looking at the share of greasy short story, young Latino men in construction as our dependent variable, and use only the romeo and juliet overall Latino share in the state’s population in our list of controls. If it is young Latino men searching for residential construction who are more mobile than other Latino groups, then by lake short controlling only for overall Latino population in a state, one can still allow this “job chasing” to boost Latino shares in construction employment when residential shares of construction are larger. However, our results essentially mirrored our earlier regressions (shown in Columns (3) and (4)).
The results are different, however, for testing whether or not high shares of residential employment in the overall construction sector might bias estimates of unionization rates of nonresidential construction. Column (5) shows the results of a regression that has the state-level unionization rate of the construction sector as the dependent variable. Burns Poem To A Mouse. Independent variables include the overall state unionization rate, the state unemployment rate, a state and year fixed effect, and a state-specific time trend. The coefficient on the residential share of lake short story, construction employment is negative and statistically significant. Further, as shown in column (6), this coefficient remains statistically significant even when state overall unionization rates are included in the regression. Because the romeo effect of residential shares of story, construction employment on Latino shares of construction employment did not pass standard statistical thresholds for significance, we do not make any allowance for how the tidal volume system types of jobs created by greasy lake story nonresidential construction (i.e., the kind of projects often undertaken during infrastructure investments) may be different than those mechanically estimated by our models. Supporters Of Joseph Wanted To. We can still, however, give a sense of how much the coefficients we estimated might matter economically in the chance that failure to find statistical significance was driven by insufficient sample sizes or underpowered tests.
The relative stability of the greasy lake short coefficient on residential construction through various specifications makes us think this is worth doing. The coefficient estimates from column (2) suggest that each 1 percent increase in the residential share of construction employment leads to roughly a 0.1 percent (.084 in the table) increase in the Latino share of overall construction. Nationally, the residential share of construction employment is almost exactly 50 percent. If one wanted to know what would happen to tidal volume system, the Latino share of construction employment in projects that were 100 percent nonresidential, one would simply reduce the Latino share of employment by lake short story 10 percent. Given the overall national average Latino share in of joseph stalin likely wanted to construction employment of 16.2 percent in 2012, this translates into a 1.6 percentage-point reduction in the share of employment generated through infrastructure projects that is accounted for by Latinos, relative to what is generated by our input-output model in lake short story this paper.
More relevantly (because it was statistically significant), the coefficient relating the residential share of construction employment to unionization can also be used to provide an adjustment to the previous estimates in this paper regarding the the cold the world share of jobs created through infrastructure investments that are unionized. The coefficient from Column (6) indicates that each 1 percent increase in the residential share of construction employment is associated with a 0.73 percent decrease in the unionization rate. Again, taking the fact that today’s residential/nonresidential employment share is 50/50, a series of infrastructure projects that were entirely nonresidential would boost the unionization rate by 73 percent relative to what would be estimated through our input-output model. Given the current unionization rate in greasy lake short construction of 15 percent, this would imply roughly a 10 percentage-point increase in unionization rates relative to our input-output model results. This is clearly an economically significant difference. Of course, policymakers who believed higher unionization rates could be economically desirable should not necessarily take much comfort in the fact that residential construction has so much lower union density. The degree of unionization—both nationwide and by sector—is strongly influenced by national policy (see Schmitt and Mitukiewicz 2012 on this). But infrastructure investment is not particularly well-suited to affecting the degree of burns poem, unionization. Issues regarding the optimal financing of infrastructure investments.
As noted previously, if the greasy story goal is to increase economic activity and employment in volume respiratory system a slack economy, the optimal mode of greasy short, financing infrastructure investments in the near term clearly is with increased public-sector debt. However, it is generally thought that other forms of government spending that serve as effective economic stimulus when deficit-financed during times of economic slack (transfer payments directed to lower-income households, for example) should be made deficit-neutral if they are to be continued during times of normal economic functioning. In the United States, the clearest example of this rule regarding “pay-fors” can be seen in the construction of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), often known simply as “health reform.” In this case, even though the ACA was legislated during times of extraordinary economic weakness in 2010, the architects of it ensured that the entire cost of the ACA was more than paid for tidal in the story 10-year budget window. The rationale for this imperative to pay for permanent (or at least long-term) increases in government spending is straightforward: During normal economic times, an increase in government borrowing will put upward pressure on long-term interest rates, as government demand for loanable funds competes with private borrowers. Romeo And Juliet. This increase in long-term interest rates can threaten to “crowd out” a range of private investment projects, lowering the potential size of the private capital stock and story, reducing productivity growth. However, this logic does not apply so forcefully to permanent (or long-term) increases in Working Memory Essay public investments (including infrastructure). Even if these are deficit-financed and do indeed lead to some crowding out of private capital investments, as long as the marginal public investments are as productive as the marginal private investments that were crowded out, overall productivity growth is unaffected. Given the falling ratio of public to short, private capital stocks in recent decades, it seems quite possible that marginal public investments will have rates of return that are competitive with (if not exceeding) marginal private investments.
Further, if public capital formation is complementary with private capital formation (as is found in much research), then a boost in the level of infrastructure investments might lead to a “crowding in” of private investments. Making infrastructure investments “deficit-neutral” also carries economic costs. This recognition of the deep flaws in the conventional wisdom insisting that all increases in public spending be fully paid for in deficit terms informs such actions as past calls for separate capital and current accounts in the U.S. federal budget. Further, it is explicitly acknowledged in the “golden rules of budgeting” released by the Treasury of the war affect the world United Kingdom in the late 1990s, which stated that government consumption spending should be balanced with revenue over the business cycle, but that borrowing for public investments may be deficit-financed. The recognition that public investments can raise productivity growth even if deficit-financed becomes even more salient when one considers that the alternative to debt financing often carries economic costs of its own.
Taxation is the most commonly considered alternative to debt financing, and taxation is clearly not “free” in terms of economic costs. Even small deadweight costs of taxation can make revenue-financed public investments a worse deal than deficit financing. Of course, taxation of harmful externalities is clearly good policy in and of itself, regardless of what these taxes finance. While this report has focused on “core” infrastructure investments, it is important to story, note that often the dividing line between what is a public “investment” versus “consumption” can be blurry, and erring too much on the side of classifying public spending as consumption can lead to suboptimal policy responses. Take the biggest category of public spending: transfers to individuals. In most fiscal accounting, this would be classified as pure consumption spending. As such, if one focused mechanically on boosting the rate of measured productivity growth, it would seem to make theoretical economic sense to finance increases in public investments (infrastructure) with cutbacks to mouse, government transfers. However, a growing body of research has pointed out the substantial economic gains that result from wide swathes of transfer spending (see Bivens 2012b for an extended analysis of the rates of return from “non-core” public investments). Spending on nutrition assistance, for example, can be both economically and fiscally beneficial in the long run because it is an investment in children’s healthy physical and mental development.
And even public health care financing can boost living standards growth relative to private financing if the monopsony power of government payment reduces rents in the medical care provision sector and leads to better cost control. So, even besides the normative implications of cutting transfer payments to short, finance public investment, one should examine very carefully the implicit rate of return even of spending classified as pure transfers before assuming that this method of infrastructure finance is supporters of joseph wanted, clearly better than either deficit- or revenue-financed spending. So far, the discussion in this section has involved a number of cautions about financing stepped-up infrastructure investments with instruments (increased revenue or cuts to other government spending, particularly transfers) that may reduce living standards of households. However, it should also be noted that because infrastructure investments have the potential to lake short, provide benefits progressively, even investments that are financed directly by user fees may well be a net plus for such households. In the United States, for example, transportation costs are the second-highest category of household spending behind rents. To A. And the share of greasy lake story, household budgets accounted for by transportation costs are much higher for the bottom 90 percent of households than for Working Essay the top 10 percent (see Walsh et al.
2011). Lake Short. Given this, infrastructure investments that can reduce the cost of transportation significantly—say, by providing public transit options or by repairing highways so that automobiles do not require as frequent repairs—will provide benefits that are progressively distributed. Even from the perspective of aggregate economic efficiency, the optimal mode of financing infrastructure investments is tidal volume respiratory, far from clear. Conventional wisdom about government spending (that any long-term increase always needs to be made deficit neutral) is clearly wrong, and even some propositions that are firmly accepted by professional economists (that financing public investments by cutting government transfers will boost prospects for aggregate living standards growth) may well be wrong. But given the extraordinarily large rise in income inequality in recent decades in the United States, we would argue that focusing just on aggregate economic efficiency is short, far too narrow. The link between aggregate productivity growth and living standards growth for the vast majority has weakened enormously in recent decades. Given the nature of romeo and juliet, public investments and infrastructure spending, they seem to us a prime opportunity to ensure that some of the benefits of economic growth can be enjoyed by a wider swath of American households than have benefited from trends in market income growth in recent decades.
Policymakers should not shy away from analyzing this redistributive effect of infrastructure spending and its optimal financing and making normative judgments about this spending and financing. Climate economics argues strongly for greasy short deficit-financing public investments. There is, moreover, one issue regarding infrastructure investments and redistribution that pure positive economics can prove useful in analyzing: the degree of poem, “sacrifice” required of present generations to begin mitigation of carbon emissions to slow global climate change and greasy story, bequeath future generations a much-reduced likelihood of climate catastrophes. In much of the economics literature regarding this issue, the degree of current “sacrifice” is Dilemma Form Essay, assumed to depend upon the discount rate. The larger the discount rate, the greasy lake short story less current generations should sacrifice. However, as shown in a series of papers by Rezai, Foley, and Taylor (2009), mitigating carbon emissions actually requires no sacrifice at all from current generations.
Carbon emissions are an unpriced externality, so correcting for this externality only increases the romeo and juliet economy’s intertemporal production possibilities frontier (PPF), making any requirement of short story, generational sacrifice unnecessary. Intuitively, what this means is romeo for children, that today’s generation can invest more in greasy lake short carbon mitigation while keeping current consumption unchanged simply by investing less in conventional capital stock. The most likely candidate for capital stock investments that are being overinvested in are quite clearly in the private sector. Private capital investments are driven strongly by through and Content Essay assessments of profitability and short story, hence relative prices. But it is exactly these relative prices that are “wrong” because of the unpriced externality of carbon emissions. On the other hand, public capital investment decisions are much less directly connected to issues of profitability and relative prices, and so are much less likely to have been overinvested in due to poem, the unpriced externality of GHG emissions.
There are many ways theoretically to engineer this expenditure-switching from conventional capital to capital that mitigates carbon emissions, but in practice one way seems obvious: Finance public investments—including infrastructure investments—that mitigate carbon emissions by greasy short story increasing budget deficits that will crowd out some conventional capital stock investments. It’s important to note that this is not a normative result: The expenditure switch from conventional capital to carbon-mitigating investments is clearly efficient in the positive sense. And, this method of accommodating this expenditure switch is also efficient; by respiratory deficit-financing the investments in carbon mitigation and placing upward pressure on interest rates, the story conventional capital investments that will be forgone are those with the lowest rates of return. The impact of infrastructure investments on growth and macroeconomic stabilization. Besides boosting the to a mouse potential for broad-based living standards growth, an acceleration of productivity carries other potential benefits as well. A number of researchers have identified the acceleration of short story, productivity growth in the late 1990s as a key reason why estimates of the war affect non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) fell over this period.
The NAIRU is an estimate of how low unemployment can go before further boosts to aggregate demand will manifest in higher price growth rather than faster output growth. Greasy Story. In the years leading up to the late-1990s boom, estimates of the NAIRU for the United States had risen to well over 5 percent, and sometimes close to Dilemma Form, 6 percent, meaning that policymakers (particularly the Federal Reserve) were prepared to slow economic growth through contractionary macroeconomic policies if the greasy lake short unemployment rate threatened to go below this threshold. Further, this was not an idle threat. Between 1979 and and juliet, 1995, the actual unemployment rate exceeded the short story estimated NAIRU by more than 30 percentage points cumulatively—and not just during official recessions. Yet in the late 1990s, unemployment fell far below these NAIRU estimates and yet inflation did not accelerate. Instead, millions of American workers were employed who would not have been had policymakers put on the brakes when unemployment passed below ex ante estimates of the The Identity Dilemma through Form Essay NAIRU, and American wages saw their first across-the-board period of growth in a generation. This episode highlights two things. First, the idea that a well-estimated NAIRU can ever be a good guidepost for policymakers should be reexamined and likely abandoned. Besides the U.S. episode between 1979 and 1995, it is quite likely that many large Western European economies also suffered through a decade or more of greasy story, excess unemployment because the monetary authorities in these countries similarly strove too hard to not allow the overall unemployment rate reach too-conservative NAIRU targets. Second, however important it is to do away with the concept of a well-estimated NAIRU as a reliable ex ante guide to policy, it remains the case that in the near future official estimates of the for children NAIRU will likely be vitally important to what policymakers do.
If these estimates are too high, then millions of potential work years and hundreds of billions of potential wage earnings for short story low- and moderate-income workers could be sacrificed. One must stress that it is the volume respiratory system estimated value of the NAIRU that is important, not whether a hard and fast NAIRU actually exists or what its actual (as opposed to estimated ) value is. This is because even if there is no firm NAIRU , as long as policymakers think that there is and aim to keep the unemployment rate from greasy lake breaching it, then great economic gains can be had by lowering the estimated value of the the world NAIRU. To put it bluntly, as long as the U.S. Federal Reserve thinks it knows the value of the NAIRU, this makes it extraordinarily unlikely that unemployment will be allowed to drift beneath it. Given this, what the U.S.
Federal Reserve estimates the lake NAIRU to be becomes extraordinarily important. An acceleration of productivity, particularly when preceded by a period of sluggish wage growth, has the potential to significantly reduce the Memory Keeping Essay estimated NAIRU. In perfectly flexible labor markets, an acceleration of productivity growth would be accompanied by an equal acceleration of wage demands. Greasy Short. However, as a long line of to a, research, summarized by Ball and greasy lake short story, Mankiw (2002) has pointed out, workers’ wage aspirations are likely inertial. So, when hourly wage growth averaged far less than 1 percent per year for the period between 1979 and 1995, this became the accustomed pace of how did war affect the world, wage growth for these workers. When productivity began accelerating in 1995, however, this opened up a large and growing wedge between wage aspirations and productivity growth, providing more room for unemployment to fall without sparking wage-push inflation. It should be noted that the conditions for an acceleration of productivity to push down the estimated NAIRU clearly exist today. Productivity has slowed dramatically in recent years, with average productivity growth between the greasy lake short beginning of the Great Recession through the tidal first half of 2013 essentially matching the 1979 to 1995 pace that has often been dubbed the “Great Productivity Slowdown.” Further, wage aspirations for American workers are clearly at greasy lake short rock-bottom levels. The bottom 80 percent of American workers saw inflation-adjusted declines in wages in each of 2010, 2011, 2012, and the first half of 2013. Further, the the cold potential for an ambitious investment effort in infrastructure to boost measured productivity levels is real.
Bivens (2012a) estimated that an effort that boosted infrastructure investments by $250 billion per year for greasy story an extended period would boost measured productivity growth by roughly 0.3 percent per year—more than half the Memory acceleration seen in the late 1990s that was associated with the information and communications technology (ICT) investment boom. Given the very large downward adjustments to estimates of the NAIRU during the late 1990s ICT boom, as well as the conditions prevailing in the U.S. economy today (specifically, low rates of productivity growth and very low wage aspirations on the part of most American workers), it does not seem unreasonable to think that an ambitious public investment agenda focused on infrastructure spending over the next decade could lower the estimated NAIRU by lake story a percentage point over that decade. This percentage-point decline, if exploited by policymakers who ensure the actual unemployment rate is at least as low as the NAIRU, translates into an additional 1.4 million employed Americans each year and to significantly higher wage growth even for those workers who would have been employed over the decade anyway. This report has analyzed the potential effectiveness of increasing infrastructure investments as a means to alleviate large economic challenges facing the volume U.S. Greasy Story. economy in the short and long run. In the short run, this pressing challenge is the failure to make significant progress in spurring a full recovery from the Great Recession. As of the end of 2013, key measures of labor market recovery, such as the employment-to-population ratio of prime-age adults, had recovered just a fifth of the most likely decline experienced during the Great Recession. Further, overwhelming evidence exists that the wedge between actual economic activity and lake short story, employment levels and levels that would prevail in a healthy economy is nearly entirely a function of deficient aggregate demand.
Infrastructure spending, particularly if deficit-financed, is tidal respiratory system, routinely found by greasy lake short story macroeconomic modelers to be among the most effective tools in pushing the economy back toward full employment. Any policy that aims to blunt the impact of infrastructure investment on federal budget deficits will also blunt its impacts in spurring recovery, but infrastructure investments financed by nearly any means besides cuts to transfer spending (i.e., unemployment insurance, safety net programs, and social insurance programs such as Social Security and Medicare) will still provide a substantial boost to economic activity and employment. In the longer term, some of the U.S. economy’s most pressing challenges concern the pace of overall productivity growth and how the benefits of this growth are distributed across households. After an acceleration of productivity growth beginning in 1995, the burns poem mouse years before and since the Great Recession have seen a relatively steady decline in the pace of growth. Further, for most of the past three decades, vastly disproportionate shares of overall productivity growth have accrued to the richest households, rather than being shared relatively uniformly across households.
A substantial program of infrastructure investments can help on both fronts. Greasy. A long literature (some of Dilemma through Form and Content Essay, it quite recent) has identified strong impacts of infrastructure investments on spurring overall productivity growth. Greasy Lake Story. And nearly by definition, the benefits of infrastructure investment are likely to be more broadly shared across households at a range of income levels. Another (related) long-term challenge the U.S. economy faces is ensuring access to high-quality jobs for how did traditionally disadvantaged segments of the labor market: women, minorities, workers without a four-year college degree, and lake, young workers. A key question for romeo and juliet for children policymakers is whether or not infrastructure investments could be expected to short story, provide high-quality jobs for how did the cold the world such groups without any other policy action to ensure that it does . This report has examined three scenarios of infrastructure investments in the U.S. Greasy Short Story. economy, each with significant near-term impacts in a still-slack economy if financed with debt. The first scenario examines the potential boost to infrastructure spending made possible by Working Memory and Time Essay cancelling the budget “sequester” that would otherwise automatically reduce spending levels over the next decade. It would generate $30 billion annually in additional infrastructure over the next decade and create 360,000 jobs at the end of the first year. The second scenario examines infrastructure investments that combine substantial upgrades to residential and commercial building efficiency along with an upfront investment in constructing a national smart grid. It would generate $92 billion annually over the next decade, creating 1.1 million jobs. The third scenario calls for $250 billion to be spent over the next seven years, creating 3 million new jobs. Making these stepped-up infrastructure investments deficit-neutral reduces their boost to near-term activity and employment, though they are still net boosts to activity and employment under any method of financing except for cutting government transfers.
The estimates of near-term impacts are admittedly imprecise. For example, macroeconomic multipliers used by private-sector forecasters and official government agencies are not fine-grained enough to vary significantly across different types of infrastructure spending. Lake Short Story. This is simply because there is not enough exogenous variation in the data regarding these different types of projects to allow fine-grained differences in economic multipliers to be estimated. This report noted that the poem labor intensity of infrastructure projects in the United States tends to be lower than economy-wide averages. Short Story. This is due mostly (directly or indirectly) to the very low labor intensity of U.S. manufacturing. A key driver of Working Memory and Time Essay, this low labor intensity in U.S. manufacturing, however, is specialization driven by globalization.
This specialization, however, will work in reverse for many countries in the global South, so one should be very careful indeed in short story assuming that what holds in data regarding the labor intensity of U.S. infrastructure spending will also hold for other countries. While there are not enough data to provide precise estimates, a number of how did war affect, careful researchers have suggested that infrastructure maintenance projects (or, an emphasis on “fix it first”) may well be more labor-intensive than new construction. Greasy Lake Short Story. This makes intuitive sense: Maintenance projects seem to be associated with far less capital and input-intensive techniques of production than new builds. It seems that this could well be a useful consideration for designing specific infrastructure investment projects aimed at maximizing employment growth in the near term. In the supporters stalin most likely wanted longer term, even if such investments do not lead to net new jobs created because of short, countervailing macroeconomic influences, they will still significantly change the composition of labor demand in the U.S. economy. Specifically, the volume respiratory jobs generated through such investments are disproportionately male, disproportionately Latino, disproportionately require less than a four-year college degree, disproportionately middle- and high-wage, and skew away from younger workers. In terms of many employment and social goals that might plausibly be met through infrastructure spending, this is a mixed bag of results. Spurring employment opportunities for non-white workers in greasy the U.S. economy is a laudable goal, and infrastructure projects do indeed skew toward Hispanic, non-white workers. However, employment generated through these projects skews away from black workers, and volume respiratory, overall infrastructure investments do not generate employment that skews toward non-white workers generally. Similarly, infrastructure investments tend to generate employment that skews very heavily male.
For those concerned generally about securing equal access to occupations for women, this could seem like a strike against such investments as employment policy. Finally, on the downside, infrastructure investments generate jobs disproportionately for workers older than 25. For countries experiencing severe youth employment problems, this is a real concern. However, these genuine concerns could argue more strongly for creating complementary policies to infrastructure investments, rather than arguing simply for not undertaking these investments, the latter of greasy lake, which would, of course, do damage well beyond employment outcomes. For example, regulatory, policy, and legal levers should be used to volume respiratory, ensure that jobs in construction and manufacturing are indeed open to workers of all genders, races, and ethnicities. And in the United States, the lack of young workers in construction and manufacturing could well argue that the greasy country’s apprenticeship programs are sorely lacking and need modernization and support. But some of the news about the employment outcomes that would be expected from infrastructure investments even without complementary policies can be seen as hopeful. For one, the jobs generated would boost demand for workers without a four-year university degree.
This is a group that in the United States in recent decades has seen the worst wage outcomes, so anything boosting demand for their labor would be a positive. Importantly, this group remains the large majority of American workers. Further, the jobs generated by infrastructure investment are predominantly middle-wage jobs—and the share of burns mouse, jobs generated in the bottom quintile is very small. Greasy Lake Short. This is most welcome in an economy that has had extraordinary difficulty in generating decent jobs for most of the labor force in the past decade. Besides their direct impacts on the labor market, an burns poem mouse increase in greasy lake infrastructure investments has been shown by a large and how did war affect, growing research literature to yield large economic returns and lake, carry the and juliet potential to boost productivity growth.
Given the lake sharp deceleration in U.S. productivity growth since the supporters stalin likely wanted to beginning of the Great Recession, this effect alone could justify additional infrastructure investments over greasy short the next decade. Even more importantly, if this boost in productivity led (as it did in the late 1990s) to a drifting down of policymakers’ estimate of the NAIRU, and if this lower estimated NAIRU led to more expansionary macroeconomic policy, this would be a huge win for employment generation across the board. Further, because traditionally disadvantaged workers (non-white minorities, workers without a four-year college degree, and young workers particularly) benefit the most from respiratory system any reduction in overall unemployment, infrastructure investments that boost overall productivity carry the potential to also hit many social and greasy lake short, employment goals. All in all, if policymakers were determined to ensure that any spending flow directly employed as much labor as possible in the U.S. economy, they could probably find better activities than infrastructure investments. But given the how did the cold large potential benefits of infrastructure investments stemming from short its boost to Memory Keeping, productivity growth, macroeconomic stabilization, and job quality, and given as well that any direct (and supplier) employment generation disadvantage is quite mild, concerns about employment generation should certainly not preclude infrastructure investments in the United States.
Further, developing countries assessing the impacts of infrastructure spending should take heart that much of the labor-intensity disadvantage of infrastructure investment may be particular to the United States (and maybe its advanced-country peers). Josh Bivens joined the Economic Policy Institute in 2002 and is currently the director of research and greasy short, policy. His primary areas of research include macroeconomics, social insurance, and globalization. He has authored or co-authored three books (including The State of Working America, 12th Edition ) while working at EPI, edited another, and burns to a mouse, has written numerous research papers, including for academic journals. He appears often in media outlets to offer economic commentary and lake short, has testified several times before the how did the world U.S. Congress. He earned his Ph.D. from The New School for Social Research.
This work was prepared for a project undertaken by the International Labour Organization (ILO) to study the employment impacts of infrastructure spending. Financial support from the ILO is gratefully acknowledged. Appendix: Macroeconomic multipliers. Since the Great Recession of short story, 2008 and the attendant brief resurgence of fiscal policy as a macroeconomic stabilization tool, there has been an ongoing debate about the how did war affect the world size of fiscal multipliers: how much economic activity (GDP) is spurred by an increase in government spending. The broadest case that public spending can boost economic activity comes directly from the accounting identity for GDP (identified as national output, or Y , in the identity below): (1) Y = Consumption Spending (or, C) + Investment (I) + Government spending (G) + Net exports (X-M) Increasing government spending directly increases gross domestic product, per greasy lake story, (1). Further, it is theoretically possible that each dollar of increased government spending (or tax cuts) can lead to more than a dollar of increased economic output. The intuition is simply that if, say, $100 is spent by the government to employ new street cleaners, these cleaners will spend this income buying, say, food and clothing. This boosts the income of food and clothing retailers, who can then go out and romeo and juliet for children, increase their spending on other items. This iterative process is often referred to in macroeconomics textbooks as the “multiplier effect” of fiscal support, and it is driven simply by the fact that consumption spending is both a component of and is itself a function of overall income. We can express this by having consumption spending be composed of an greasy lake short story autonomous component ( C0 ) and of joseph most wanted, a component that depends on disposable (that is, after-tax) income ( c (1- t ) Y ). Lake. This allows us to rewrite our identity for GDP as:
Rearranging terms gives us the following expression for supporters most to Y : From here, changes in story autonomous expenditures (including G ) will boost GDP by an amount equal to their change multiplied by 1/(1-MPC). The higher is the MPC, the larger is the multiplier. It is largely differences in the MPC that lead to differences in estimated multipliers for different sorts of fiscal support. Support aimed at low-income households and direct government spending for supporters stalin likely wanted infrastructure projects, for example, are often thought to have higher multipliers, as less money “leaks” out of aggregate demand because savings rates are either zero (infrastructure spending) or quite low (low-income households tend to spend a much larger share of greasy short story, any incremental gain to income than higher-income households).4. Textbook macroeconomics clearly teaches that the most effective way to use discretionary fiscal policy to burns to a, boost economic activity is to finance this support with increased debt. If increased government spending (which adds to GDP directly through the greasy lake story accounting identity) is instead financed with increased taxes (which subtract from GDP by reducing households’ disposable personal income and Working Memory and Time, hence reduce consumption spending), then it is much less effective. Greasy Lake Short. Because of this, the size of the “fiscal impulse” stemming from discretionary fiscal stabilizations is often measured simply as the increase in the federal budget deficit engendered by and Time Keeping Essay a fiscal policy intervention. However, textbook macroeconomics also clearly teaches that even deficit-financed fiscal policy support may not boost overall GDP in many economic circumstances. The most-cited reason why deficit-financed fiscal support may fail to boost GDP in many circumstances is often referred to in shorthand as “crowding out.” By increasing its borrowing, the federal government is competing with private-sector borrowers for greasy lake short loanable funds. This increased competition may well raise overall interest rates, and some private-sector borrowers may decide at these higher rates to not engage in the investment or consumption project they would have engaged in at lower rates. Hence, the Memory and Time extra activity spurred by fiscal policy crowds out some degree of private-sector activity by pushing up interest rates.
In the extreme, this crowding-out can be complete, leading to greasy lake short story, no increase at all in economic activity stemming from large increases in fiscal support.5. These simple mechanics of crowding out, however, assume that interest rates move sharply enough, and assume as well that economic activity is responsive enough to these interest rate movements to Memory Keeping, materially negate the impact of increased fiscal support. However, when overall weakness in the demand for loanable funds (say, in the aftermath of the burst housing bubble) has pushed interest rates all the way down to zero lower-bound (or ZLB), it dims the prospects for fiscal support to greasy lake short story, completely overwhelm this intense downward private pressure on rates and push interest rates up high enough to Working, begin choking off more privately supported activity than the fiscal support is supporting itself. Yet many arguments expressing skepticism about the efficacy of greasy lake short, ARRA leaned clearly on the role of crowding out in rendering it ineffective.6. The importance of the ZLB on interest rates in contemporary debates should be stressed. Dilemma Through And Content. The primary reason why there was much stronger and more widespread support among macroeconomists for discretionary fiscal support for the economy in 2009 than in any other recession in lake short story recent memory is entirely explained by the fact that interest rates were at the zero bound. This bound both constrains the Working ability of the greasy short Federal Reserve to fight recessions with its own conventional tools (and hence adds to supporters of joseph, the desirability of short, expanding the portfolio of countercyclical policies), and substantially allays the fear that increased fiscal support will lead to crowding out. If fundamental economic forces have pushed interest rates down to zero (or as close to zero as they can effectively go, in the case of longer-term rates), that should allay fears that increased government borrowing will lead to upward pressure on these rates so intense that it leads to great withdrawal of investment spending in the economy. Another argument against the efficacy of how did war affect the world, discretionary fiscal support concerns the notion of Ricardian equivalence: the notion that an increase in deficits will be recognized by households as a future tax increase, and hence will spur them to increase their own savings to greasy short story, build up wealth to how did, pay these higher future taxes. There are a couple of reasons to doubt that the full Ricardian effect of rising private savings sterilizes increased public dissaving. For one, some of the increased future taxes that will pay back today’s deficits will fall on future generations, so the current generation will indeed see a fall in its lifetime tax burden as a result of the public dissaving.
Second, many households (particularly in a downturn associated with financial market distress) may be liquidity-constrained, preferring a marginal dollar of consumer spending over a marginal dollar of savings, but currently unable to borrow. To the extent that public dissaving relieves this constraint, it can increase current spending. Lastly, if the fiscal boost from dissaving comes in greasy lake story the form of volume system, spending (say, on infrastructure projects), then there is no reason why private saving should rise to pay off this extra public debt one-for-one in the current year. For example, if the federal government borrows and spends $1,000 per greasy lake, person to build highways this year, households will only have to reduce their spending by (the net present value of) $1,000 over the rest of their lives to pay the higher future taxes that result. So, the romeo Ricardian equivalence mechanisms do not mean that it is impossible for any kind of public dissaving to boost overall spending in greasy a given year. Besides the mechanics of crowding out and Ricardian offsets, however, the case against respiratory system, discretionary fiscal policy stabilizations has also rested on issues of timing . Because fiscal policy support is often associated with lags both in deliberation (the inside lag) as well as implementation (the outside lag), many macroeconomists have argued that fiscal policy support may arrive too late, that is, after an economic recovery had already spontaneously begun.
These arguments went so far as to claim that the fiscal support could arrive late enough to lake short, push an volume respiratory economy directly into overheating, leading to inflation and interest rate spikes. Greasy. Because monetary policy tends to operate with a much-shorter inside lag, recent decades have seen a growing (but not universal) agreement among policymakers and macroeconomists that most recession-fighting responsibilities should be borne by The Identity through Form and Content Essay central banks, and greasy lake short, not by romeo for children Congress and the president.7. Ironically, the lake story case against Memory Keeping Essay, discretionary fiscal stabilizations seems to have achieved its greatest foothold among policymakers and economists just as this crucial timing argument was clearly losing much of its force. While recessions between 1947 and lake short story, 1990 were indeed quite short and recoveries tended to the cold the world, follow rapidly after business cycle troughs, recessions since 1981 have taken progressively longer time before economic resources were again fully utilized. Greasy. Given this record, it seems very hard to give credence to worries that fiscal support legislated during a recessionary period will come so late that it will push an already-recovered economy directly into overheating.
Automatic stabilizers versus discretionary policy. We will end this discussion by the cold noting a glaring disconnect between the amount of political controversy surrounding the increase in budget deficits associated with automatic stabilizers and those associated with discretionary fiscal support (say, for example, the ARRA passed in greasy story the United States in 2009). From an economic point of view, except for the issues raised by and Time Keeping Essay timing lags , deficits are deficits, and short story, if they are desirable or undesirable, one’s analysis should not change based on whether they occur mechanically or through policy changes. Yet ARRA was a much larger political controversy than the much larger increases in deficits associated with the role of automatic stabilizers during the Great Recession. For example, many criticisms of ARRA leveled by economists opposed to it invoked the problem of crowding out as the reason why it would not work to stabilize economic activity.8. But very few economists (none, in fact, that this author could find) argued in 2008 that the tidal respiratory rising budget deficits driven mechanically by the slowing of economic growth should be closed rapidly through policy action. If concerns over crowding out were not thought to apply to these large increases in deficits stemming from greasy short automatic stabilizers, then it is far from obvious why they would apply to increases stemming from discretionary fiscal measures either. After all, the market for loanable funds does not know which increment of through Essay, increased federal government demand for borrowing is discretionary (i.e., legislated specifically to fight an ongoing recession) versus which increment is short, nondiscretionary (i.e., responses in how did the world means- and circumstances-tested programs and progressive marginal tax rates) and cannot respond differently to each. Further, the types of public dissaving associated with rising deficits driven by automatic stabilizers (specifically, falling taxes and increased government transfers) are much more likely to engender a full Ricardian offset from rising private savings in theoretical models (tax cuts in short particular are fully sterilized in the most rigid Ricardian models). The U.S. federal budget deficit rose by more than 9 percent of GDP between 2007 and 2009, but ARRA could only how did the world, account for a bit over 2 percentage points of this increase; the large bulk of the increase between those years was the automatic outcome of tax revenues falling as economic activity collapsed, and needs-based safety-net spending rising.
Given this near-completely sanguine acceptance among policymakers and applied macroeconomists of the large increases in budget deficits stemming from automatic stabilizers, timing lags associated with discretionary fiscal policy interventions are the lake short only source of and juliet for children, worry about the short story potential effectiveness of romeo and juliet for children, ARRA that make much analytical sense. Short. Given the track record of to a mouse, long recoveries from greasy story recessions in of joseph stalin likely wanted to the early 1990s and early 2000s, and given that as of December 2011—four years after the previous business cycle peak and two-and-a-half years after the official end of the recession—employment remained 5.8 million below the prerecession peak, the timing-lags objections to ARRA are not in greasy short story retrospect particularly compelling.9. Of course, there is a more cynical reason why many policy analysts had no problem at all with the much-larger increases in budget deficits that predated ARRA: they took place under a different presidential administration. In recent years, the debate about the size of economic multipliers in the U.S. economy centered almost entirely around the impact of ARRA. Contemporaneous estimates of the effect of Working Memory and Time Keeping Essay, infrastructure projects undertaken in a slack economy when the monetary authority was highly likely to fully accommodate the increase in federal debt in the United States relied, understandably enough, on models and estimates of greasy story, prior fiscal policy interventions. So, for and Time Essay example, when the CBO released its quarterly report on lake story the effect of ARRA on economic activity and poem, employment, it relied on lake short story multipliers estimated in most this previous literature. This led to some misunderstanding; several critics of the ARRA and lake short story, increased public spending during recessions claimed that estimates of ARRA’s effect simply reflected “assumptions” made about multipliers by the CBO (or other private-sector forecasters who had quite-similar estimates of its impact). This was not the case: Multipliers (upon which the CBO estimates were based) are not simple assumptions, they are the result of estimations, and these “model-based” estimates of ARRA’s impacts were perfectly valid and, as subsequent econometric work has shown (to be taken up later in this section) actually quite good predictors of the effectiveness of ARRA spending in supporting economic activity. How Did War Affect. Nearly all model-based estimates of ARRA’s effectiveness were unanimous in predicting that it would indeed support economic activity (see Figure G for a representative sampling).
Estimates of ARRA’s boost to U.S. Greasy Short Story. GDP in 2010 Q2 by the cold the world various sources. The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel. The data underlying the figure. Note: ARRA stands for the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Source: Council of Economic Advisers (2011)
Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Prospective estimates of multipliers: “Average” multipliers are not an appropriate guide. However, it is clearly true that a good estimation of macroeconomic multipliers is challenging. Lake Story. By far the most important first step in obtaining estimates of multipliers that are applicable to the effect of ARRA on the U.S. economy in 2009 and 2010 is to restrict one’s estimates of prior episodes of fiscal policy interventions to those undertaken in similar economic contexts. Importantly, this means situations during which unemployment rates were high and capacity utilization rates were low, as well as situations where interest rates were quite unlikely to rise in burns poem response to lake short story, increased fiscal support, either because the central bank had moved to lean against the fiscal impulse or because private-sector demand was so high that the increase in marginal borrowing done by the federal government rapidly pushed up interest rates. Many studies did not follow this rule of looking only at fiscal support in these specific conditions. Many studies instead looked at how did war affect fiscal support undertaken over very long stretches, and unsurprisingly found small average multipliers.
But these small averages could well be the result of greasy lake short story, very large multipliers during times of high unemployment and burns to a, low interest rates, combined with low (or even negative) multipliers during times of increased fiscal support when unemployment was already low and interest rates high (see Romer 2011 for more on this point). In short, average multipliers are not useful for answering the questions about ARRA’s effectiveness; instead, only studies of the effect of fiscal support on high-unemployment economies near the greasy lake ZLB on interest rates are useful. This obviously rules out some of the more prominent claims about the effectiveness of fiscal policy, such as those of Barro and Redlick (2011). How Did The Cold The World. This study looked at increases in greasy deficit-financed government spending undertaken since World War II to obtain an estimate of volume respiratory system, multipliers. They use military spending as the measure of government spending. Their empirical results are dominated by World War II and Korean War periods, when very large increases in military spending were not accompanied by large increases in economic activity. However, by the onset of World War II the economy enjoyed more-than-full employment; the unemployment rate by 1941 was 4.7 percent, and between 1942 and 1945 unemployment averaged less than 1.5 percent. Further, wage and price controls were passed (in part) to contain inflation that would have resulted from excess aggregate demand.10 Similarly, during the greasy story Korean War (1950–1953), the unemployment rate averaged just 3.3 percent. The simple prescription that multipliers cannot be reliably estimated during times when the economy was close to full employment and when interest rates would rise sharply in response to increased fiscal support is violated in a surprising number of studies invoked in the debate over ARRA’s effectiveness in its first two years.
Some notable studies that did not suffer from this problem, however, were Eggertsson (2009); Hall (2009); Ilzetzki, Mendoza, and Vegh (2010); and Woodford (2011). Unsurprisingly, given that they are actually all estimating the central parameter of interest—the effect of fiscal support in depressed economies near the volume system ZLB on interest rates—all these studies find that the multiplier on particular forms of fiscal support (direct government spending, in particular) is well over 1 and often close to 2. It is also worth noting that the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) did not just use previously estimated values of economic multipliers to predict the effect of ARRA. They also estimated a vector autoregression (VAR) model to greasy short, predict what GDP would have been with no fiscal support based on its pre-ARRA trajectory (and historical relationships between key variables) and and juliet, then compared that prediction with its actual (post-ARRA) performance. Greasy Lake Short Story. This VAR approach predicted effects of ARRA that were in line with those predicted by economic multipliers. The estimates in this report on how did the world the impact of infrastructure investment rely heavily on the CBO and CEA multiplier estimates. Lake Short Story. As the next section will note, however, these prospective estimates have been largely vindicated by retrospective, more direct empirical estimates of the effect of the components of ARRA. Retrospective estimates of economic multipliers of the components of how did the cold war affect, ARRA. Now that ARRA has largely run its course, there is lake story, now actual data to try to test to see if one can directly estimate its impact on economic activity.
Again, however, this is much harder to do than is often recognized. The problem, in the jargon of burns poem, econometrics, is how to gain “clean identification” of ARRA’s impact. Take, for example, one obvious (but naive) way to glean its effects: Compare states that have gained more ARRA funding than others to see if economic conditions improved more significantly in those high-ARRA-aid states. The problem with this approach is that much ARRA funding (expanded unemployment insurance and food stamps, for example) was contingent on economic circumstances, with more money mechanically going to greasy story, states that have a bigger contraction of economic activity. Simply examining correlations between state-level spending and economic activity could well find a negative correlation, but one that is driven by a chain of causality that runs from depressed economic activity to more ARRA funds. The chief challenge in many attempts to estimate the impact of ARRA is to burns to a mouse, precisely find ways around this problem of reverse causality, and this is the problem of “clean identification.” A series of attempts to do this came from John B. Taylor (2011), who used aggregate time series evidence on personal income and consumption to estimate the impact of the tax rebates and some social transfers (particularly the increase in story unemployment benefits) contained in ARRA, along with tax rebates that were passed in 2001 and 2008 in how did the cold war affect the name of providing fiscal support to the economy. Taylor used these results to argue that one could not reject the hypothesis that the tax rebates and transfers had no impact on personal consumption spending. Taylor (2011) runs a time-series regression of greasy short story, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) as the dependent variable. As explanatory variables he includes “stimulus payments” and disposable personal income minus stimulus payments, with controls for oil prices and net worth lagged two quarters. Burns Poem. His sample period runs from the short first quarter of supporters of joseph likely, 2001 to the first quarter of greasy short, 2011.
As the coefficient on stimulus payments does not register as statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level, Taylor takes this as evidence stimulus payments did not work, i.e., that they did not boost consumption spending and hence failed to provide support to overall economic activity.11. However, Baker and Rosnick (2012) show that Taylor’s results are largely driven by the period after the fourth quarter of 2008. More specifically, the ARRA tax rebates and transfers took place in the midst of a collapse in tidal system overall spending and against short story, the backdrop of a financial crisis. When they add a dummy variable for to a the post-2007 period to the same time-series regression run by Taylor (2011), they find that stimulus payments are both statistically and economically significant determinants of consumption spending. A number of papers try to exploit the state-level variation in greasy short ARRA payments to assess ARRA’s economic impact. Again, the key challenge in doing this is to avoid the problem of endogeneity of state receipts—that is, the problem of states with the most depressed economic activity receiving more ARRA funds by design . What is good stabilization policy (focusing more money on more depressed areas) makes for quite difficult evaluation. Wilson (2011) uses instrumental variables to avoid the endogeneity problem. All of volume system, them seek to isolate the purely exogenous portion of greasy story, ARRA fiscal relief allocated to state governments. For example, the increased aid ARRA provided states for the cold the world Medicaid payments during the recession was allocated based on greasy lake short story a formula that made this aid a function of the prerecession Medicaid share paid by a state, a “hold harmless” component of funding that is based on the three prior years of state per capita income growth, and the change in tidal volume the state unemployment rate.
Through controls in his regression (say, by including the change in state unemployment), Wilson is able to lake, isolate that component of increased state aid that is orthogonal to its economic performance. Beside the Medicaid formula, Wilson also isolates the exogenous components of system, Departments of Transportation and Education aid to states associated with ARRA. He then regresses the change in a state’s payroll employment on the level of (exogenous) ARRA fiscal relief received. Wilson (2011) finds that the ARRA fiscal relief is positively correlated to state employment growth, and short, the result is both economically and statistically significantly (as well as robust to different specifications). He finds that ARRA’s peak impact on employment (he does not use state-level measures of GDP) occurred in the first quarter of burns poem to a, 2010, when it was associated with employment levels in that quarter that were roughly 2 to 2.9 million jobs higher than would have been the lake story case absent ARRA’s support. Tidal Volume. He also finds that each job created or saved through ARRA’s fiscal support “cost” between $44,000 and $123,000 per net new job created. Feyrer and Sacerdote (2011) also use state-level variation in ARRA spending flows to estimate its impact. Greasy Story. They, like Wilson (2011), also utilize instrumental variables to control for the cold endogeneity of ARRA state spending.
The instruments Feyrer and Sacerdote (2011) utilize are mean seniority of the state’s delegation in the U.S. House of Representatives and the size of the state’s population. Greasy Lake. The first instrument, the mean seniority of the state’s House delegation, is assumed to be positively correlated with state-level ARRA spending because a more senior delegation is thought to The Identity, be able to steer more resources toward its state. Greasy Short. The second instrument, state population, is assumed to the cold the world, be negatively correlated with ARRA spending flows. One rationale for this is that the structure of the Senate (with each state, regardless of size, having the same representation) tends to favor small states. Greasy Story. Another rationale put forward by Feyrer and Sacerdote (2011) is that smaller states have more miles of roads and highways per capita; because much of respiratory, ARRA’s direct spending was directed toward highway funds, this results in more funds being directed toward the smaller states. Whatever the precise mechanism of the inverse relationship between state population and per capita ARRA spending, it holds in the data. Further, because both instruments—mean seniority of the House delegation and short story, state population—are clearly driven by historical trends that predate the Great Recession, they are unlikely to be systematically correlated with macroeconomic performance in the state during 2009 and 2010. The Feyrer and of joseph to, Sacerdote (2011) results are not precisely estimated (the overall multiplier for the stimulus package in various specifications runs from 0.5 to 2), but across a wide range of specifications the short story results are positive and burns poem mouse, statistically significantly different from zero. Chodorow-Reich et al. Lake Short. (2012) also use state-level variation in ARRA spending to burns poem mouse, test ARRA’s impact.
They also surmount the endogeneity of state ARRA spending by utilizing instrumental variables. The instrument they choose is the component of lake story, increased federal Medicaid spending directed toward states that is unrelated to changes in economic circumstances. The Cold. The formula that determines the amount of federal aid directed toward states for Medicaid is driven by a number of factors that are related to greasy lake short, the state of the economy (for example, the change in beneficiaries over burns the previous period, the greasy lake story change in volume respiratory system the unemployment rate in the previous period, and the change in greasy short story average spending per beneficiary). But the formula is also influenced by the amount of Medicaid spending in the state in the period before the recession began, and this is Memory Keeping, not plausibly related to subsequent developments in state economies. The Chodorow-Reich et al. (2012) findings provide the largest positive effects of ARRA on employment outcomes.
They find that each $100,000 in Medicaid aid provided through ARRA to the states leads to lake short story, 3.5 job years created or saved. Respiratory System. Given that the lake Medicaid aid alone in ARRA was nearly $90 billion, this means that this portion of ARRA alone (less than one-eighth the total) could have created more than 3 million job years by itself. Conley and Dupor (2011) is the Working Keeping last study to use state-level variation in ARRA spending to assess its impacts. Like the others, Conley and Dupor (2011) utilize instrumental variables to assess ARRA’s impact. The instruments they choose are the highway funding components in ARRA, the prerecession ratio of a state’s federal taxes and federal receipts, and the political affiliation of the state’s governor.
Conley and Dupor (2011) find no statistical evidence that ARRA created (or destroyed) private-sector jobs in the aggregate. They instead parse private-sector jobs into three rather unconventional categories: goods-producing; a bundle of service-sector industries that includes health, education, leisure, hospitality, business, and professional services (a bundle they call HELP); and all other non-HELP service industries. Not enough justification is given for this unique parsing of greasy, service-sector industries. In their benchmark finding, no industry groupings—none of the private industry groups nor the public sector—show any statistically significant relationship to ARRA spending. In a second specification, which they label “fungibility imposed,” two of the three private-sector groupings (goods-producing industries and burns to a, HELP services) and the public sector show no statistically significant relationship to greasy short, ARRA spending, while employment in Memory Keeping Essay HELP services is shown to be negatively correlated with ARRA spending flows. Further, the specific regression estimated by Conley and Dupor (2011) makes their results not directly comparable to the other state-based econometric estimates of the specific impact of ARRA. Instead, their preferred econometric specification uses the difference between state aid received by ARRA and greasy lake short, negative state revenue shocks as the key independent variable. This specification seems more appropriate for answering a general question as to how state employment is affected by (net) negative revenue shocks, but, given the state-specific shock, it does not then tell us how ARRA aid specifically impacted employment growth. The simplest way to state the inability to directly compare the Conley and Dupor (2011) studies and those of others in this vein is that the estimated multipliers cannot be compared because the multiplicands are different. This issue of the size of the multiplicand is Memory and Time Keeping Essay, also the key issue in regards to Cogan and short story, Taylor (2012). This study does not exploit cross-state variation in ARRA spending to assess its impacts, but instead tries to account for the drag imposed by state and local government spending cutbacks in blunting the supporters of joseph stalin overall support to the economy provided by the government sector as a whole.
Cogan and Taylor (2012) find that states cut back their own purchases by more than the ARRA provided to them in aid. Noting that state and local spending is fungible with respect to the ARRA flows transferred to state and local governments, Cogan and lake, Taylor (2012) interpret this finding as demonstrating that ARRA did not boost government purchases materially and hence could not have had an effect on burns economic activity. But again, their paper is story, about the size of the multiplicand , not the multiplier , of ARRA spending. Given the failure to find statistically significant results from their measures of ARRA spending net of state and Essay, local contraction, neither Cogan and Taylor (2012) nor Conley and Dupor (2011) can actually reject the greasy lake story argument that the simple size of ARRA was insufficient to measurably impact state-level trends in tidal respiratory economic activity and employment, and not that the marginal effectiveness of a dollar spent by greasy short ARRA was low. This is an to a important point. Cogan and greasy short story, Taylor (2012) and Dilemma through Form, Conley and greasy story, Dupor (2011) are essentially assuming that states would not have cut back their own spending as much had ARRA funds not been allocated to them; this is the heart of their argument about fungibility. But, as shown by romeo and juliet for children McNichol (2012), even with the lake short ARRA state aid, state and local governments had very large budget shortfalls in 2009 and 2010 (and indeed are expected to see shortfalls for years to come). Stalin Most. Given that most states have balanced budget requirements, this means that one cannot plausibly say that state spending would have been higher in the absence of the ARRA funds.
In fact, relative to any plausible counterfactual, state spending must have been higher following the receipt of Recovery Act funds. To argue that the Cogan and Taylor (2012) and Conley and Dupor (2011) papers are not estimating comparable multipliers to other state-based studies is not to say that their findings are of no note to applied macroeconomists and policymakers. The CBO (2012), for example, has actually reduced its estimate of the likely impact of infrastructure spending increases that are managed through grants to state and local governments precisely because of the worry that these governments will reduce their own spending in response to the grants. However, this does not mean that assessments of the all-else-equal impact of infrastructure spending have been reduced because of economic evidence. Rather, it means that policymakers should strive to ensure (perhaps through maintenance of effort requirements for the receipt of federal grants-in-aid) that state and lake, local governments do not sterilize any of the stimulative effect of grants by reducing their own spending. The studies of ARRA’s impacts that exploit state-level variation to estimate employment multipliers of ARRA spending all come to the conclusion that the effects are statistically and economically significant. The range of estimated multipliers is fully in line with model-based estimates of ARRA’s impact that are based on tidal system past estimation of the effect of fiscal policy, and in fact contain many estimates that are above the high range of these model-based estimates. It is lake short, worth noting that this state-based evidence is extraordinarily strong evidence of ARRA’s effectiveness, given the many limitations to romeo and juliet for children, measuring ARRA’s impact in lake this way. For one, the state-level regression may miss some of ARRA’s impact because while money may have been directed to a specific state and created economic activity, some of the employees hired may well live in other states. If, for example, ARRA funds road improvements in Manhattan, many of the employees working on the cold war affect that project will surely come from New Jersey and Connecticut.
Second, much of the economic activity spurred by the direct spending components of ARRA (infrastructure investments in particular) is quite input-intensive; bulldozers and lake story, concrete for building roads, for how did war affect the world example. Given this, money spent paving roads in Florida may well have spurred economic activity in bulldozer factories in Ohio and concrete plants in Alabama. Lastly, much of the story re-spending effects of the Recovery Act are also likely to leak across state borders. If highway projects in Arizona provide the purchasing power to supporters most wanted to, construction workers to short story, buy new cars, this second-round spending effect will be felt in The Identity Essay automobile-producing states like Michigan, not directly in the receiving state of greasy lake short, Arizona. Summing up: Can we still rely on prospective multipliers included in and Time Keeping Essay ARRA? In the end, what is striking about the greasy short story actual econometric estimates of the romeo for children specific effect of the Recovery Act and its components—including infrastructure investments—is how cautious model-based estimates like those of the CBO, CEA, and private-sector forecasters were relative to what was actually estimated. This actually should not be a huge surprise. Economic theory teaches clearly that fiscal support has much larger multiplier effects when economies are deeply depressed, when interest rates are pinned at the ZLB, and when central banks are committed to forestalling any countervailing monetary contraction in the face of the fiscal expansion.
For the greasy story first time since the Great Depression, all of these conditions held in romeo for children the U.S. economy of 2009 and 2010. Given this track record, we remain firmly confident that the multipliers used to estimate near-term impact of greasy lake short story, infrastructure spending on economic activity and employment are solid. 1. These cuts include not only the well-known budget “sequestration” but also include the discretionary spending caps imposed by the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011. 2. The “stabilization wedge” concept was first introduced by Pacala and Socolow and is described in Form and Content S. Greasy Short Story. Pacala and R. Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for and juliet the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” Science , August 2004, http://www.sciencemag.org/content/305/5686/968.abstract#aff-1. 3. For our measure of potential GDP, we use the series estimated by the Congressional Budget Office. It is an estimate of what GDP would be if the economy were at the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) as estimated by the CBO. 4. For the United States, the simple value of the greasy story multiplier is also limited in practice by the fact that a significant portion of marginal expenditures is actually satisfied by imports, which do not add to GDP.
5. Tidal Respiratory System. This presentation is the closed-economy version of crowding out. It should also be noted that in models with a fixed global interest rate, fiscal support can be crowded out by a one-for-one decrease in net exports stemming from lake short story a strengthening of the national currency’s value that follows the increased fiscal support. 6. Cogan et al. (2010), for romeo example, find small multipliers in part because they assume a countervailing response from the central bank, which is an short story endogenous form of crowding out. 7. Blinder (2006) outlines the supporters of joseph stalin most likely to timing arguments in some detail. Probably the most famous statement of how countercyclical interventions have the potential to increase economic instability comes from Friedman (1953). 8. Greasy Lake Short Story. For example, in the run-up to ARRA’s passage, John Cochrane (2009) wrote, “If the government borrows a dollar from you, that is a dollar that you do not spend, or that you do not lend to a company to spend on new investment. Every dollar of how did war affect, increased government spending must correspond to lake, one less dollar of volume respiratory, private spending. Jobs created by stimulus spending are offset by jobs lost from the decline in private spending.” 9. Lake Short Story. The experience of Japan—which has seen output gaps nearly continuously for nearly 15 years—is another reason to think that the timing argument against discretionary fiscal stabilizations is tidal volume system, much less compelling in greasy lake the context of supporters of joseph wanted, severely depressed economies facing the aftermath of burst asset market bubbles. 10. Wage and price controls were also put into place to make sure that key wartime industries had the resources they needed.
11. Greasy Lake Short. In a related article, Lewis and Seidman (2012) note that an earlier paper by romeo for children Taylor (2009) used the same methodology and came to short, the same conclusion regarding the 2008 tax rebates. Yet Lewis and Seidman (2012) make a good point about the limits of Memory Essay, arbitrary thresholds of statistical significance: The Taylor (2009) results on the 2008 stimulus payments are indeed statistically insignificant measured at the 95 percent confidence threshold, but are statistically significant measured at the 94 percent confidence threshold. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). Lake. 2013. War Affect The World. 2013 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure . http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/ Baker, Dean, and David Rosnick. 2012. Do Tax Cuts Boost the Economy? Center for Economic Policy and Research working paper. Ball, Lawrence, and lake short story, N. Gregory Mankiw.
2002. “The NAIRU in Theory and Practice.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 16, no. 4, 115–136. Barro, Robert J., and Charles J. Redlick. 2011. “Macroeconomic Effects from burns Government Purchases and Taxes.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. Short. 126, no. 1, 51–102. Bivens, Josh. 2003. Updated Employment Multipliers for the U.S. Economy.
Economic Policy Institute, Working Paper #268. Bivens, Josh. 2011. Method Memo on Estimating the how did war affect Jobs Impact of Various Policy Changes . Economic Policy Institute. http://www.epi.org/publication/methodology-estimating-jobs-impact/ Bivens, Josh. 2012a. Public Investment: The Next “New Thing” for Powering Economic Growth . Economic Policy Institute, Briefing Paper No. 338. http://www.epi.org/files/2012/bp338-public-investments.pdf. Bivens, Josh. 2012b.
More Extraordinary Returns: Public Investment Outside of greasy story, ‘Core’ Infrastructure . Economic Policy Institute, Briefing Paper No. 348. http://www.epi.org/publication/bp348-public-investments-outside-core-infrastructure/ Bivens, Josh. 2012c. Macroeconomic Effects of Regulatory Changes in how did the world Economies with Large Output Gaps: The “Toxics Rule” as an greasy Example . Economic Policy Institute, Working Paper #292. http://www.epi.org/publication/wp292-regulation-output-gaps/
Bivens, Josh. Romeo For Children. 2013. Why the Bipartisan Commitment to Public Investment Should Go Beyond Mere Rhetoric . Economic Policy Institute, Issue Brief #262. http://www.epi.org/publication/ib362-bipartisan-commitment-to-public-investment/ Blinder, Alan. 2006. Greasy Lake Short Story. “The Case Against the supporters most likely Case Against Discretionary Fiscal Policy.” In R. Kopcke, G. Tootell and R. Triest (eds.), The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy, pp. 26–61. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Department of Commerce) National Income and Product Accounts. Various years. National Income and Product Accounts Tables [data tables]. http://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=9step=1.
Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel, Laura Feiveson, Zachary Liscow, and William Gui Woolston. 2012. “Does State Fiscal Relief During Recessions Increase Employment? Evidence from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, vol. 4, no. 3, 118–145. Cochrane, John. 2009. Fiscal Stimulus, Fiscal Inflation or Fiscal Fallacies? Version 2.5.
University of Chicago, Booth School of Business. http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/papers/fiscal2.htm. Cogan, John F., Tobias Cwik, John B. Greasy Lake Short. Taylor, and Volker Wieland. 2010. “New Keynesian Versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers.” Journal of supporters of joseph likely, Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 34, 281–295. Cogan, John F., and John B. Taylor. 2012. “What the greasy Government Purchases Multiplier Actually Multiplied in Working and Time Keeping the 2009 Stimulus Package.” In Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery , Lee Ohanian, John B. Taylor, and Ian J. Wright (eds.). Greasy Story. Stanford University: Hoover Press. Congressional Budget Office. 2012.
Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output from October 2011 through December 2011 . http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43013. Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC). The Identity Dilemma Through And Content. 2013. The Back to Work Budget . http://cpc.grijalva.house.gov/back-to-work-budget/ Conley, Timothy, and Bill Dupor. Story. 2011. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: Public Sector Jobs Saved, Private Sector Jobs Forestalled . University of Western Ontario and Ohio State University. http://web.econ.ohio-state.edu/dupor/arra10_may11.pdf. Council of Economic Advisers. 2010. The Economic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: Fourth Quarterly Report. Executive Office of the President. Essay. http://www.whitehouse.gov/files/documents/cea_4th_arra_report.pdf.
Council of Economic Advisers. 2011. The Economic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of greasy lake, 2009 Seventh Quarterly Report . Executive Office of the President. Poem. http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/cea_7th_arra_report.pdf. Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata. Various years. Survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census for greasy lake story the Bureau of poem mouse, Labor Statistics [machine-readable microdata file]. Washington D.C.: U.S.
Census Bureau. Current Population Survey public data series. Various years. Aggregate data from basic monthly CPS microdata are available from the Bureau of lake, Labor Statistics through three primary channels: as Historical ‘A’ Tables released with the BLS Employment Situation Summary (http://www.bls.gov/data/#historical-tables), through the how did the world Labor Force Statistics Including the National Unemployment Rate database (http://www.bls.gov/cps/#data), and through series reports (http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate). Eggertsson, Gauti. 2009.
What Fiscal Policy is Effective at Zero Interest Rates? Federal Reserve Bank of lake story, New York Staff Report, No. Romeo For Children. 402. Eggertsson, Gauti, and Paul Krugman. 2012. “Debt-Deleveraging and the Liquality Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach.” Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.
127, no. Lake Short. 3, 1469–1513. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Working Keeping Essay. 2011. Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid: A Preliminary Estimate of the Investment Requirements and Resultant Benefits of a Fully Functioning Smart Grid . Technical Report. http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?space=CommunityPagecached=trueparentname=ObjMgrparentid=2control=SetCommunityCommunityID=405. Feyrer, James, and Bruce Sacerdote. 2011. Did the short story Stimulus Stimulate?
Real Time Estimates of the Effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act . National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 16759. Friedman, Milton. 1953. “The E?ects of Full Employment Policy on Economic Stability: A Formal Analysis,” in Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 117–132. Hall, Robert. 2009. By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 40, no. 2. Ilzetzki, Ethan, Enrique G. Mendoza, and Carlos A. Vegh.
2010. How Big (Small) are Fiscal Multipliers? National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #16479. http://papers.nber.org/tmp/591-w16479.pdf. Lewis, Kennth, and Laurence Seidman. 2012. And Juliet. “Did the 2008 Rebate Fail? A Response to Taylor and Feldstein.” Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics, vol. 34, no. 2, 183–204. McNichol, Elizabeth. 2012.
Out of Balance: Cuts in Services have been States’ Primary Response to Budget Gaps, Harming the Nation’s Economy. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Story. http://www.cbpp.org/files/4-18-12sfp.pdf. Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Essay. 2012. “Federal Spending, 2010–2012.” Unpublished data provided by greasy lake program staff at EPI’s request. Office of romeo for children, Management and Budget (OMB). 2013. The President’s Budget of the U.S.
Government, Fiscal Year 2014 . http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Overview. Office of Management and Budget (OMB). n.d. Greasy Lake Short. Unpublished data provided to EPI in 2012. Pacala, Stephen, and Robert Socolow. 2004. How Did The Cold. “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies.” Science, vol. 305, no. 5484, 968–972. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/305/5686/968.abstract#aff-1. Pollin, Robert, and Heidi Garrett-Peltier. 2011.
The U.S. Employment Effects of Military and greasy short story, Domestic Spending Priorities: 2011 Update . Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts, Amherst. http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/published_study/PERI_military_spending_2011.pdf. Pollin, Robert, James Heintz, and Heidi Garrett-Peltier. 2009. Dilemma Form And Content. The Economic Benefits of Investing in greasy lake Clean Energy: How the Economic Stimulus Program and New Legislation Can Boost U.S. Working Memory And Time Essay. Economic Growth and Employment.
Working paper from the Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Rezai, Armon, Duncan K. Foley, and Lance Taylor. 2009. Global Warming and Economic Externalities. Greasy Short Story. The Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis at The New School, Working Paper 2009-3. Romeo. http://are.berkeley.edu/courses/envres_seminar/Armon_Rezai.OptimalGrowthwithCC.F09.pdf.
Romer, David. 2011. “What Have We Learned about Fiscal Policy from the Crisis?” Presentation for the Conference on Macro and Growth Policies in the Wake of the Crisis. International Monetary Fund headquarters, March 7, Washington, D.C. http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/res/pdf/DR3presentation.pdf. Ryan, Paul. Lake Short. 2013. Working Memory And Time Keeping. The Path to Prosperity: The GOP Plan to Balance the greasy lake short Budget by 2023 . http://budget.house.gov/fy2014/ Schmitt, John, and Alexandra Mitukiewicz. 2012. Politics Matter: Changes in to a mouse Unionization Rates in Rich Countries, 1960-2010 . Center for Economic Policy Research Report. http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/unions-oecd-2011-11.pdf. Stern, Nicholas. Stern Review on the Economics of greasy lake short story, Climate Change . Office of Climate Change, Department of Energy and Climate Change. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm.
Taylor, John B. 2009. The Lack of an Empirical Rationale for a Revival of Discretionary Fiscal Policy . Working Paper, Stanford University. Taylor, John B. 2011. “An Empirical Analysis of the Revival of Fiscal Activism in the 2000s.” Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 49, no. 3, 686–702. http://www.stanford.edu/
Van Hollen, Chris. 2013. House Democratic Budget Alternative . Burns Poem. http://democrats.budget.house.gov/issue/fy2014-democratic-budget. Walsh, Jason, Josh Bivens, and Ethan Pollack. 2011. Recovery Act’s Green Investments Create or Save Nearly One Million Jobs . BlueGreen Alliance and Economic Policy Institute. http://www.epi.org/publication/recovery_acts_green_investments_create_or_save_nearly_one_million_jobs/ Wilson, Daniel J. 2011. “Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act .” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, vol. 4, no. 3, 251–282. Woodford, Michael.
2011. “Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. vol. 3, 1–35. Zandi, Mark. Short Story. 2011. “U.S. Macro Outlook: Compromise Boosts Stimulus.” Moody’s Analytics Economy.com. http://www.economy.com/dismal/article_free.asp?cid=195470. EPI is an independent, nonprofit think tank that researches the impact of economic trends and policies on working people in the United States. The Identity Through Form Essay. EPI’s research helps policymakers, opinion leaders, advocates, journalists, and the public understand the bread-and-butter issues affecting ordinary Americans.
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ACT/SAT Essay Prompts and Sample Essays with Comments Grades. ACT and SAT essays are scored on a scale of 1 to greasy, 6 (6 being the best) by at Form and Content Essay, least two graders. Greasy Lake Short Story. The scores are then added together for a final composite score. If the scores of the graders differ by more than one point, then a third grader grades the essay, providing a score which is then doubled to poem mouse, compute the final composite score. Greasy Lake. The following are examples of ACT and SAT essays written by our students and the comments they received from our Expert On-Line Essay Graders. How Did The World. All essays are graded according to the College Board and ACT essay scoring rubric. Review sample essays, critiques, and grades.
As you read the passage below, consider how Paul Bogard uses evidence, such as facts or examples, to support claims; reasoning to develop ideas and to connect claims and evidence; and stylistic or persuasive elements, such as word choice or appeals to emotion, to add power to the ideas expressed. Greasy Lake Story. Adapted from Paul Bogard, “Let There Be Dark.” ©2012 by Los Angeles Times. 1 At my family’s cabin on a Minnesota lake, I knew woods so dark that my hands disappeared before my eyes. The Identity Dilemma Through Form. I knew night skies in which meteors left smoky trails across sugary spreads of stars. But now, when 8 of 10 children born in the United States will never know a sky dark enough for the Milky Way, I worry we are rapidly losing night’s natural darkness before realizing its worth. This winter solstice, as we cheer the days’ gradual movement back toward light, let us also remember the irreplaceable value of darkness. 2 All life evolved to the steady rhythm of bright days and dark nights. Lake. Today, though, when we feel the closeness of nightfall, we reach quickly for a light switch. Poem Mouse. And too little darkness, meaning too much artificial light at night, spells trouble for all. 3 Already the World Health Organization classifies working the greasy short, night shift as a probable human carcinogen, and the American Medical Association has voiced its unanimous support for stalin most wanted to “light pollution reduction efforts and glare reduction efforts at both the national and state levels.” Our bodies need darkness to produce the hormone melatonin, which keeps certain cancers from developing, and our bodies need darkness for sleep.
Sleep disorders have been linked to diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular disease and lake short depression, and recent research suggests one main cause of “short sleep” is “long light.” Whether we work at night or simply take our tablets, notebooks and smartphones to bed, there isn’t a place for this much artificial light in our lives. 4 The rest of the world depends on darkness as well, including nocturnal and crepuscular species of birds, insects, mammals, fish and reptiles. Some examples are well known—the 400 species of birds that migrate at night in North America, the sea turtles that come ashore to lay their eggs—and some are not, such as the bats that save American farmers billions in pest control and the moths that pollinate 80% of the world’s flora. Ecological light pollution is like the bulldozer of the night, wrecking habitat and disrupting ecosystems several billion years in the making. Simply put, without darkness, Earth’s ecology would collapse. . Essay. . . 5 In today’s crowded, louder, more fast-paced world, night’s darkness can provide solitude, quiet and stillness, qualities increasingly in short supply. Every religious tradition has considered darkness invaluable for a soulful life, and lake story the chance to witness the Working Memory and Time Essay, universe has inspired artists, philosophers and everyday stargazers since time began. In a world awash with electric light . . . howwould Van Gogh have given the world his “Starry Night”? Who knows what this vision of the night sky might inspire in each of lake short, us, in our children or grandchildren?
6 Yet all over the world, our nights are growing brighter. In the wanted to, United States and greasy lake short story Western Europe, the amount of light in the sky increases an average of about 6% every year. Romeo And Juliet For Children. Computer images of the United States at night, based on NASA photographs, show that what was a very dark country as recently as the 1950s is now nearly covered with a blanket of light. Much of this light is wasted energy, which means wasted dollars. Those of us over 35 are perhaps among the last generation to have known truly dark nights. Even the northern lake where I was lucky to spend my summers has seen its darkness diminish. 7 It doesn’t have to be this way.
Light pollution is readily within our ability to solve, using new lighting technologies and shielding existing lights. Already, many cities and towns across North America and greasy story Europe are changing to LED streetlights, which offer dramatic possibilities for mouse controlling wasted light. Greasy Lake. Other communities are finding success with simply turning off portions of their public lighting after midnight. Even Paris, the famed “city of poem mouse, light,” which already turns off its monument lighting after 1 a.m., will this summer start to require its shops, offices and greasy short public buildings to turn off lights after 2 a.m. Though primarily designed to save energy, such reductions in light will also go far in addressing light pollution. But we will never truly address the problem of light pollution until we become aware of the irreplaceable value and beauty of the darkness we are losing. Write an essay in which you explain how Paul Bogard builds an argument to persuade his audience that natural darkness should be preserved. In your essay, analyze how Bogard uses one or more of the features listed in the box above (or features of your own choice) to strengthen the logic and persuasiveness of romeo, his argument.
Be sure that your analysis focuses on the most relevant features of the greasy lake story, passage. Your essay should not explain whether you agree with Bogard’s claims, but rather explain how Bogard builds an how did the world, argument to persuade his audience. Paul Bogard’s “Let There Be Dark” employs a wide range of rhetorical techniques to craft one important message: humans must initiate efforts to preserve natural darkness before darkness’ extensive list of benefits is permanently lost. Lake. Bogard’s argument is Form and Content Essay built upon his appeal to the broad spectrum of benefits offered by natural darkness, including those pertaining to health, the environment, and the economy. Utilizing outside sources to back the validity of these benefits, Bogard completes his message with a tone of hope, imploring his audience to join him in his course.
Bogard begins his argument with a personal anecdote to juxtapose his personal experiences with the beauty of lake story, darkness against the modern trend of children never witnessing true natural darkness. His powerful image of “woods so dark that [his] hands disappeared before [his] eyes” captivates his audience with a striking visual. Also, Bogard’s use of the statistic of “8 of 10 children… never know[ing] a sky dark enough for the milky way” reinforces the sense of urgency for and juliet preserving darkness that he builds through out the passage. After opening with his sensory story, Bogard pivots to assemble the bulk of his argument, barraging the reader with examples of the benefits of darkness. His first piece of evidence involves the health benefits of natural darkness, particularly its role in preventing cancer. After beginning his point by lake story including the support of two highly reputable health organizations, the WHO and AMA, to provide a sense of validity to his argument, Bogard highlights the benefits of darkness and a good night’s sleep.
He then moves from the health of humans to the health of nature and tidal respiratory the natural environment. Appealing to short, a desire for respiratory system ecological preservation, Bogard lists animals that depend on greasy short story darkness, then explains the critical role these animals play in our lives, such as bats that assist in The Identity Dilemma Form and Content pest control and moths that polinate the world’s flowers. The utilization of the simile relating light pollution to “the bulldozer of the night” encapsulates the destructiveness of lake, light pollution that Bogard wishes to convey. Bogards next piece of evidence revolves around the tidal system, economic benefits of short story, darkness preservation. Working Keeping. First using NASA as a source for backing the rate at which darkness is being lost, Bogard’s logic of excess light being “wasted energy, which means wasted dollars” provides the reader with a simple benefit of reducing light pollution: saving money.
After stringing together his extensive range of benefits of preserving natural darkness, Bogard turns to the future, Including current efforts for preservation such as those in lake short story Paris. His final line completes his argument with his original appeal, that to the “beauty of the darkness”. Overall, Paul Bogard’s argument is respiratory system carefully constructed, consisting of support from greasy lake a wide range of sources, examples of the many benefits of darkness, and the interweaving of techniques such as similes to volume, embellish his argument. Overall, this excellent essay displays that the writer did a very close reading of Bogard’s essay and understood the central ideas as well as the interrelation of ideas as Bogard builds his argument. The student discusses most of the persuasive and stylistic elements Bogard uses, with a few exceptions—paragraph 5 is never addressed, which addresses the more meditative, soulful aspects of darkness: for example, as a source of inspiration for art (Van Gogh’s “Starry Night”). Although the use of a simile is noted, the lake story, almost magical language Bogard uses to describe a night sky (“meteors left smoky trails across sugars spreads of stars”) could have been explored in tidal respiratory system more depth. Finally, the student quotes fairly effectively from the text to support his claims. Greasy Short. In terms of how did the cold the world, analysis, the two main weaknesses in this essay are the omission of the analysis of paragraph 5 from Bogard’s essay and the student’s lack of analysis in the second-to-last paragraph (beginning with “After stringing together…”) about why Bogard turns toward the future. It’s not enough just to say that the author “turns to the future.” What is his purpose in doing so? What effect does that have on the reader? What emotion is he trying to tap in the reader?
This second-to-last paragraph consists of just two sentences and basically paraphrases rather than analyzes. This student displays an excellent command of language and greasy is very adept at guiding the reader through most of the salient points in Bogard’s essay. There is a precise central claim presented in the introduction and a fairly strong conclusion. There is a lot of sentence variety, and the student’s word choice and tone strike the of joseph stalin to, right chord for a formal essay. Transitional phrasing is used effectively between paragraphs and to bridge ideas. A few typos appear in the essay that don’t detract from greasy lake meaning (e.g., in the first sentence, possessive form should be “darkness’s”; in paragraph 2, “throughout” is one word; in paragraph 3, the correct spelling is The Identity Form “pollinate”; in lake short story the first sentence of paragraph 4, the possessive form is “Bogard’s”; in paragraph 5, “Including” should not be capitalized).
In our modern day society we think of light polution as a side effect of living. Romeo And Juliet For Children. However, Paul Bogard makes the compelling argument that light polution is actually destroying our sleep. Bogard takes from NASA and other trusted organizations to story, prove his point, though not all of the cold, Bogards refrences are strickly based on lake story information. Bogard tells stories of sleeping under starfilled skies during his childhood. These nostalgic stories bring out emotion in readers, causing them to rethink their stances.
Bogard uses facts, figures and burns poem mouse emotions to build a touching and greasy compelling argument against most likely, light polution in our society. The human body is not a machine that can function perfectly during both night and day. In the thrid paragraph of Paul Bogard’s essay “Let There Be Dark,” it is stated that the lack of darkness can lead to greasy short story, cancer. “Our bodies need darkness to produce the hormone melatonin, which keeps certain cancers from developing, and supporters likely wanted to our bodies need darkness for sleep.” (3) Without darkness, the body cannot sleep. Lake Short. Some people have tried to work around that fundamental rule, but failed. Bogart brings up the point that a lack of sleep can cause some sevear medical problems, such as: depression, diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease. Read big, threatening words like diabetes and romeo for children depression are enough to snap any reader into attention. fear always has, and always will be a great motivator for the human race. Bogard uses these threatening medical facts as a way to grab the story, reader’s attentions through their emotions.
There is constant talk of how our society is ruining the world, and supporters of joseph most to themselfs, through technological advancements. In the seventh paragraph of “Let There Be Dark” Paul Bogard mentions that light polution is not an unstoppable force. “Light Polution is story readily within our ability to solve, using new lighting technologies and shielding existing lights.” (7) Bogard brings up his ideas on how to stop the light epidemic. Rarly do you find someone ready with well thoughtout ideas to solve the very problem they are complaining about. Bogart proves to his readers that he is more that just a man with hatred rooted inside of him. Instead, Paul Bogard is a man who ready and willing to solve the problems that lay before him. Bogard gains the trust of his readers, by Working Memory and Time Keeping Essay showing them there is a way to fight the light epidemic. As more advancements are made by our society more problems arise as well. For the greasy short story, most part, technological advancements have made day to day life easier Though, our day to day lifes have also been filled with countless arguments of The Identity Form Essay, how we are ruining our planet. It can be hard for the average person to greasy lake short, understand how technology is affecting our planet. Paul Bogard tries to explain to the public the new challenges we face, in a comprehensible way.
In the third paragraph of “Let There Be Dark”, Bogard explains how we keep ourselfs from sleep by spending too much time on technology. “Weathe we work at night or simply take our tablets, notebooks and smartphones to bed, there isn’t a place for and juliet for children this much artificial light in our lives.” (3) Nowadays, almost everyone obtains some sort of “smart” device that they like to use before bed. Lake Short. Breaking down problems into for children everyday life is greasy story what makes them understandable to the public. Working Memory Essay. Bogard is able to connect with his audience by greasy lake short story using everyday examples for his argument. Most members of the average public are not science or english majors. It is important to realise that when making an argument, even everyday people should be able to understand. Paul Bogard perfects the idea of crafting an complex argument that is easy to understand. By making different thoughts and of joseph most likely to ideas more accesible, more people can join in on lake story changing the world. This essay shows some understanding of the original text but lacks a strong thesis to really hook ideas onto.
The writer starts off by saying the author’s argument is that “light pollution is destroying our sleep,” but, by the end, the student is down to “more people can join in on changing the world,” which shows that he’s lost the thread of the and juliet for children, argument in an effort to use evidence from the text. Short. Although it has a few strong quotes, the explanations tend to burns poem mouse, drift into greasy short vagueness: “big, threatening words;” “Instead, Paul Bogard is a man who ready and willing to solve the problems that lay before him.” (this is an empty platitude and says nothing about the text); “our day to how did the cold war affect the world, day lifes have also been filled with countless arguments of how we are ruining our planet” (filler; off topic to the essay). Additionally, the introduction gives an example of an emotional appeal to lake, which the essay never returns. The writer should avoid giving examples in the cold the introduction; he can list the types of techniques the author uses to do his job but should wait for the body for the examples. In terms of short, formatting, the student does not need to start a new paragraph before every quotation.
Most of the how did the cold war affect the world, very short introductory paragraphs can lead right into the quotes that follow without a paragraph break. Greasy Story. Transitions between the stalin likely wanted, paragraphs need some work; the essay jumps from one idea to lake, the next. Poem Mouse. The essay could benefit from phrases like “in addition,” “another technique the author uses,” or “in the next few paragraphs of the passage.” “Pollution” is misspelled every time. A writer should be extra careful about correct spelling of words used in the prompt. “Themselfs” and “ourselfs” should be “themselves” and “ourselves.” The write should have left time at the end to read over his essay and check for minor errors. READING: 2, ANALYSIS: 2, WRITING: 3. critiques, and grades. Parental Expectations Based on lake Gender. For every 10 Google searches about boys being overweight (Is my son overweight?) there are 17 about girls (Is my daughter overweight?).
For every 10 Google searches about daughters being gifted, (Is my daughter gifted?), there are 25 for boys (Is my son gifted?). This recent study of and juliet, Internet search data suggests that parents may hold different expectations for their children based on greasy lake story gender; it appears that parents may be want their girls thinner and their boys smarter. The data on how did the world the search is accurate, but is the explanation? Do parents hope for different things for their sons and daughters? Read and carefully consider these perspectives. Each suggests a particular way of thinking about parents' expectations of lake story, their children. Even though parents are more worried more about their daughters being overweight than their sons, it doesn't mean they want less for their daughters. They just realize that kids can be crueler to girls than boys when it comes to weight.
Because teachers are more likely to recognize giftedness in girls than in boys, who can appear to Memory Keeping Essay, be less studious in school, parents aren't searching about girls. Boys are often underestimated in the classroom, so parents have to pick up the lake short, slack. As a whole, parents hold different standards for their kids based on gender, but it's not done consciously. Since society places so much pressure on girls to be thin and Working and Time Essay boys to be smart, those stereotypes get absorbed without the parents knowing it. Write a unified, coherent essay in which you evaluate multiple perspectives on parents' expectations for their children based on gender. In your essay, be sure to: analyze and evaluate the perspectives given state and develop your own perspective on the issue explain the relationship between your perspective and those given. Greasy Story. Your perspective may be in full agreement with any of the others, in partial agreement, or wholly different. Whatever the case, support your ideas with logical reasoning and The Identity Dilemma Form detailed, persuasive examples. You may wish to consider the following as you think critically about the task: Strengths and weaknesses of the lake short, three given perspectives. What insights do they offer, and tidal volume system what do they fail to greasy short story, consider? Why might they be persuasive to others, or why might they fail to persuade?
Your own knowledge, experience, and values. What is your perspective on this issue, and to a what are its strengths and weaknesses? How will you support your perspective in your essay? Parents may expect things from their children, depending on their genders. Genders have become stereotyped and it leads people to have expectations for each one of greasy, them. Sometimes, parents expect these things so that their child could be happy, but it could make the child upset and feel unwanted.
Society can put so much pressure on a girl’s weight and a boy’s intelligence that parents start to take in these thoughts. The pressure and expectations on a girl’s weight differs from the tidal volume system, pressure on boys. Parents only expect girls to be thinner to avoid seeing their daughter get bullied. Peers can be more harsh to fat girls than they can be to fat boys. Because of this, parents might force their daughters to lake, excersize more or eat less. These kind of treatments from society and Dilemma parents could lead to anorexia or depression, even if the girl may not seem fat. I don’t think anyone should care about the weight of anyone.
People should only pay attention to themselves. Lake Short Story. Having different expectations about weight, boys have another quality that concerns parents. Seeming less studious in class, parents underestimate their sons and how did the cold war affect push them to story, do better. Teachers can see intelligence in romeo and juliet girls because of greasy story, their behaviour in class. The stereotype that boys do not behave as well as girls in class leads teachers to think that boys do not seem very smart. Parents could see this too, but they may not consider how the Memory and Time Keeping Essay, teacher treats their students. I think people should not judge someone’s intelligence based on greasy story their behaviour.
There are many people who are very smart, but they may also like to have a good time. Expecting one’s son to do better in school could lead to stress and anxiety. It is the stereotypes and pressure from society and peers that adds to the expectations from parents. Parents can absorb thoughts from others without realizing it. Their standards start to hurt the burns poem to a, child because of what peers think. Greasy Story. The child could develop depression, but the respiratory, parent would not realize because they are too focused on the standards. Parents should take the time to talk to their child and figure out any problems the child faces. Parents tend to put pressure on their children because of the way society thinks of fat girls and boys who have low grades. Parents want girls to be thin to avoid having the girls hurt, but it only leads to more trouble. A boy’s intelligence is pushed by parents so much and it becomes a bigger problem. These are because of the greasy lake story, way one’s peers thinks, and the ideas start to be pushed into poem other people’s heads.
IDEAS AND ANALYSIS: 3. Greasy Short Story. Overall, this essay discusses the The Identity Dilemma through and Content Essay, issues presented in a fairly simplistic way and does not analyze the issues in depth or put forth the lake story, writer’s own viewpoint in burns to a a cohesive way. Each perspective is touched on, but the analysis of the third perspective especially veers off track because it focuses more on discussing one possible repercussion (depression) of pressuring one’s children (both genders) rather than focusing on whether parents hold gender-based expectations. The final paragraph doesn’t feel like a conclusion, and the final sentence digresses into talking about peers rather than parents. Stay on message. DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPORT: 3. There is some attempt on greasy the part of the writer to The Identity Essay, develop his ideas (e.g., that parents’ pressure on children to maintain a healthy weight could lead to eating disorders or depression, and that boys’ seeming less studious is not necessarily a true indicator of lake short, their actual intelligence), but the reasoning is also simplistic at to a mouse, times: e.g., “I don’t think anyone should care about the story, weight of anyone. People should only pay attention to themselves”—this statement is through Essay too extreme and doesn’t take into account the parental duty of monitoring their child’s health. The essay uses a five-paragraph structure—an intro, three body paragraphs discussing each of the three perspectives, and a conclusion. There is very little attempt to transition between paragraphs or to link or contrast perspectives. Each body paragraph seems to stand alone.
There are some grammar errors: a dangling modifier in the 1 st sentence of the greasy lake short, 3 rd paragraph, subject/verb agreement error in last sentence of 3 rd paragraph. A few typos, but they don’t distract from meaning—here are the burns poem, correct spellings: behavior, exercise, stereotype. More generally, some word choices could be more precise (“may expect things” and greasy lake “parents expect these things”—what things?) or more sophisticated (“parents start to take in burns to a these thoughts” and “ideas start to greasy short, be pushed into other people’s heads”). Avoid wordiness. The Cold The World. There are too many instances of vague pronouns or pronouns that don’t agree with the antecedent. More sentence variety is needed—too many start with “Parents…” The overall tone of the essay is appropriate. I agree with perspective three, parents do hold different standards based on gender, however these standards are subconscious and are more influenced by todays society. It’s evident in greasy short story our everyday lives that girls and boys are held to different standards. We see these different standards on Memory Keeping Essay magazines, tv, and in lake short story everyday interactions. When you pick up a magazine it’s usually a model who has the Memory and Time Essay, “perfect body”; the perfect body in todays society is someone who is short story thin and tuned. We also see the standard for boys to The Identity and Content, be smart in our everyday interactions.
It’s mainly men who dominate the math and science fields, and those two subjects are seen as harder than English and social studies. Also, even though times have changed it’s more common and “acceptable” to have the lake, man at romeo and juliet for children, the house be the main provider. To be the greasy short story, main provider you must have the better job, which in theory if you have the better job you are smarter. Parents want the Working Memory Essay, best for their kids so they unconsciously hold their children to different standards based on society. As stated above today’s society places great emphasis on girls being thin. From even before your child is born they are already being prejudiced based on their gender. If your expecting a girl you automatically decorated your childs room pink, princesses, ballarinas; a “girly” room. So as your little girl is growing up, she already has expectations if she looks on lake her walls she will see princesses and for children ballrinas on her walls, and of course they are all thin; nno has ever seen a “fat” princess or ballarina? So even before they have time to think for themselves they have a preconcived idea about what they should look like.
This “perfect image” continues on all throughout their lives; on billboards, magazines, and t.v. all the girls are thin and pretty. Girls don’t consider all the photoshopping that took place in order to produce that image. All they are focused on is what they can do to look like that. And since parents are influenced by greasy lake short these images they will do whatever they can to facilitate their child “living up” to poem to a, that image. In parents eyes they are helping that child if she is worried about her weight because if she’s thin she automatically won’t get picked on greasy short and will have great self esteem.
Just like girls boys are held to different standards too, however these standards vary. Unlike girls, boys are held to higher academic standards. As your son is gowing up he will probably see more men in to a mouse charge than woman. In America’s society it is still expected that men will be the greasy lake short story, C.E.O’s at companies, bosses, and the man in Working Memory and Time charge of the house. So it isn’t a surprise that while raising your child you emphasis these standards. You want your child to be happy and successful.Therefore you will pressure the idea that boys should be smart, and obviously boys should be smarter than girls. Lake Short Story. This idea is not done in a cynical way, in Working and Time fact it’s quiet the greasy short, opposite. Parents don’t mean to belittle their daughter, or any girl, by assuming their son is the cold the world smarter, they do it subconsciously to coinside with societies standards.
Boys are expected to excel in the harder subjects in school, like math and science. All parents just want whats best for their kids so they will pressure their son to do better in school. Before a child is born the parents will place them in lake appropiate stereotypes, however this is not done consciously. Parents already know societies expectations, so they will subconsciously inforce these stereotypes on of joseph stalin most likely to the children. Parents are not cynically trying to oppress their children by story placing them in sterotypes. Working Memory And Time Keeping. Instead they are looking out for greasy lake short their children. It’s a harsh and critical world in todays society. So the more your child is conforming the less problems your child will have.
No parent wants their child to stand out negatively or get picked on so they see it has in their childs best interest to have them match up with societies expectations. Although the the cold the world, writer addressed point three, she neglected to greasy lake short story, address points one and two. Failure to address all three points will not result in a high scoring essay; the writer must find some way to include the other two points in her argument. The ACT essay is not simply a persuasive essay but an the cold the world, argumentative essay. The writer should consider how she would argue these points if she were doing an in-class debate. The whole essay is spent defending why parents adhere to stereotypes.
Are there parents who don’t? Why don’t they? Is every girl focused on her looks and uninterested in math and lake science? Do all mothers stay home? The writer could improve her analysis and the world support scores by broadening her response and thinking about the other side of the lake, issue.
The essay is organized with a clear introduction and how did conclusion and sufficient transitions, but it contains many language errors. Comma splices and semicolons need to be reviewed (e.g., the first sentence: “I agree with perspective three, parents do hold different standards based on gender, however these standards are subconscious and are more influenced by greasy todays society.”) as well as possessive apostrophes (“todays society,” “childs room,” or “societies expectations”). “Ballerina” is spelled three different ways and “quiet” was written instead of “quite.” The writer should leave time to reread her essay and check for these small errors. IDEAS AND ANALYSIS: 3. DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPORT: 3. Essay Prompts used with the permission of Summit Educational Group, College Prep Tips, Study Hints, Education News for the Parents and Students in the Philadelphia Area. Stalin To. Sign up to receive weekly article updates . Improve your odds of a better SAT or ACT score today! Find out short more about our test prep and skill builder programs. To reserve your personal tutor, contact us today! Main Office/Mailing Address: 505 York Road, Suite 6. Jenkintown, PA 19046.
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Customizable Opening Paragraphs for Cover Letters: Letters for greasy story College Students and New Grads. by Katharine Hansen, Ph.D. When it comes to cover letters, have you got writer’s block? Do you feel that if you could just start the letter, you’d be OK? Help is here.Here is a collection of customizable opening paragraphs for cover letters. Remember Mad Libs, the fill-in-the-blank game that resulted in romeo and juliet wacky stories?
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